DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 3/4 cents in the March contract and down 3 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents in the January contract and down 6 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 5 1/4 cents in the March Kansas City and down 2 1/2 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.08 at 93.79. February gold is down $2.20 at $1,246.20 while March silver is down 7 cents and March copper is up $0.0315. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 39 at 24,368. January crude oil is up $0.54 at $57.90. January heating oil is up $0.0256 while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0157 and January natural gas is up $0.065.

Corn:

March corn closed down 3 3/4 cents Monday at $3.49 within a tick of its contract low as the same old theme of heavy supplies and low exports continues to find no appeal among traders enamored with new highs in the stock market and bitcoin's meteoric rise. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials sitting a little less bearish in corn, reducing net shorts from 91,852 to 53,708 as of Dec. 5. Commercials took advantage of corn's brief three-day rally and trimmed net longs to 48,055. On the export front, there is still not much bullish news to be found. USDA said Monday morning that 25.9 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a bearish amount that put total inspections down 42% in 2017-18 from a year ago. USDA did say 4.3 mb of U.S. corn (110,000 metric tons) were sold to Mexico for 2017-18. Technically, the trend in March corn remains down with commercial buyers helping to stem the bearish tide that grains currently find themselves facing. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.12 Friday, priced 41 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in two months. There were 39 delivery intentions in December corn early Monday. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.08 and other commodities are mixed.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed down 7 1/4 cents at $9.82 1/2 Monday, pressured by light-to-moderate rain amounts in the seven-day forecast for Argentina. Central Brazil received more rain over the weekend and has more in its forecast this week while only light amounts are anticipated for southern Brazil. The rain in Argentina is much needed and comes at a good time for emerging crops. Prices are also being pressured by a short-term bull trap that traders appear to have stepped in last week. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials increased net longs in soybeans, from 62,873 to 92,585 on Dec. 5, just when prices were challenging the old October high at $10.13. Those new long positions are now losing money as prices pull back to their lowest close in three weeks. U.S. soybean exports have been a bearish disappointment so far in 2017-18, and Monday's inspections report did not help. USDA said 45.2 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a bearish amount that has total inspections down 14% in 2017-18 from a year ago. For now, the trend in January soybeans remains sideways with important support at the November low of $9.67. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.17 Friday, priced 73 cents below the January contract and down from its highest price in four months. Monday's delivery intentions for December contracts totaled 192 for soybean meal and 121 for soybean oil.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat fell 5 1/2 cents Monday to another new contract low at $4.13 1/2, still sliding after last week's news of a 30.0 million metric ton crop estimate from Canada. Last Wednesday's 3-mmt increase in Canada's estimate probably won't be included in Tuesday's WASDE report, but when it is added, could be just enough to put world wheat production at a new record high in 2017-18 -- a somewhat remarkable feat in a year when production was down in the U.S. and Australia. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials a little less bearish in Chicago wheat on Dec. 5 as net shorts were trimmed from 82,289 to 74,071. Commercial net longs were reduced to 77,044 and remain wheat's primary source of support. Technically, winter wheat prices remain under bearish pressure with traders not interested in hearing about dry conditions in the southern U.S. Plains. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.80 Friday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and holding above its August low while futures contracts make new lows. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.61. Among December contracts, there were 285 delivery intentions for Chicago wheat and none for K.C. or Minneapolis wheat early Monday. December grain futures expire early on Dec. 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.