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December corn was fractionally lower, January soybeans were 1 cent higher, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was fractionally lower.
CME Globex Recap:The grain and oilseed complex was in familiar territory early Tuesday morning with corn fractionally lower, wheat lower, and soybeans higher. Overnight activity looked to be quiet, with little fresh news to provide direction. Other commodities were mostly lower with metals and energies under pressure while softs, including cotton, were mostly higher. The U.S. dollar index was down while DJIA futures sat near unchanged.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17.49 points higher at 23,439.70, the NASDAQ Composite gained 6.66 points (0.1%) to 6,757.60, and the S&P 500 added 2.54 points (0.1%) to 2,584.84 Monday. DJIA futures were 1 point lower early Tuesday morning. Asian markets closed lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.98 point, Hong Kong's Hang Seng off 30.06 points (0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 18.29 points (0.5%). European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 up 16.31 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX adding 7.72 points, and France's CAC 40 down 3.18 points. The euro was 0.0051 higher at 1.1720 while the U.S. dollar index lost 0.23 to 94.29. December 30-year T-Bonds were 8/32 higher at 152'21 while December gold fell $5.20 to $1,273.70. Crude oil was $0.19 lower at $56.57 while Brent crude lost $0.16 to $63.00. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | December corn continues to hold above major support on the market's long-term monthly chart. Barely. | 1) | The weight of old-crop ending stocks and new-crop harvested bushels should push corn through support; short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term. |
| 2) | Soybeans forward curve, looking out to deferred spreads, remains neutral. | 2) | Soybeans moved through the old 4-week low and did find a vacuum where few buy orders existed Monday. Look for increased noncommercial selling. |
| 3) | Despite Monday's lower close Minneapolis spring wheat remains in an uptrend. | 3) | Forward curves for both Chicago and Kansas City wheat remain bearish long-term. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN Overnight trade in December corn was almost nonexistent, registering a trading range of 1 cent on volume (futures only) of 6,500 contracts. Dec corn looks to have established another short-term consolidation range between its new contract low of $3.40 3/4 and previous support turned resistance at $3.44 1/4. It looks as if the market is settling in for its winter hibernation, with the December contract slowly sliding toward major (long-term) support on the market's monthly chart at $3.39. Fundamentally there isn't much to move the market as newly harvested bushels get tucked away alongside bins bulging with old-crop stocks. Look for Tuesday's session to be quiet with a chance of contracts poking their head above unchanged.
SOYBEANS Monday's meltdown did technical damage to Jan soybeans weekly chart. The contract moved to a new 4-week low, a move that as expected quickly dropped the market into a vacuum underneath support. Losses accelerated as buy orders weren't to be found. Light overnight buying into Tuesday morning has done nothing to erase the bearish stain on charts, with only moderate buying interest seen. Soybeans continue to have a commercial problem, with the carry in the January-to-March futures spread strengthening again Monday. This increasingly bearish outlook toward real supply and demand should ultimately lead to a strong round of noncommercial long-liquidation, with Monday's holiday delayed CFTC Commitments of Traders report (for positions as of Tuesday, November 7) showing noncommercial traders increasing their net-long futures position by 2,942 contracts. It would not be surprising to see soybeans trade either side of unchanged during Tuesday's session, with selling likely to gain momentum late in the day. Delivery of 150 contracts was reported against the November issue, putting the total at 963 contracts.
WHEAT The wheat complex was lower early Tuesday morning following a relatively quiet overnight session. The December Chicago issue was fractionally lower, posting a 3-cent trading range on volume (futures only) of 9,000 contracts. As with the rest of the grain and oilseed complex there is little fresh news to provide support to wheat heading into the winter. Planted acres of winter wheat will be estimated and released in January, though the expectation is for numbers to be down from the previous year once again. Fundamentally winter wheat remains long-term bearish, as indicated by the continued strong carry in forward curves for both Chicago and Kansas City wheat. While markets could trade both sides of unchanged Tuesday, momentum is to the downside.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.03 | -$0.01 | -$0.39 | Dec | $0.004 |
| Soybeans: | $8.95 | -$0.12 | -$0.79 | Jan | $0.006 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.91 | -$0.06 | -$0.34 | Dec | $0.008 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.70 | -$0.03 | -$0.57 | Dec | $0.024 |
| HRS Wheat: | $6.05 | -$0.14 | -$0.28 | Dec | $0.005 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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