DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Deferred Cattle Futures Recover Late, Allowing Complex to Settle Mixed

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


The cash cattle arena was typically quiet with activity limited to the distribution of new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be generally steady with last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1 lower ($56.50-$64.36, weighted average $61.38). The corn trade closed fractionally lower at the end of a spiritless session. The stock market closed at record highs with the Dow up 9 points and the Nasdaq better by 22.


Live issues closed widely mixed with settlements ranging from 50 higher to 197 lower. Nearbys December and February suffered triple-digit losses thanks to the reversal of bull spreads (i.e., profit-taking), and long liquidation tied to the index roll. Having said that, all issues managed to close well above session lows. Beef cut-outs: sharply higher, up $1.69 (select: $194.77) to $1.83 (choice: $210.57) with light-to-moderate demand and moderate offerings (53 loads of choice cuts, 27 loads of select cuts, 15 loads of trimmings, 19 loads of ground beef).


Don't expect much in terms of market definition Tuesday. Bids and asking prices are not likely start taking shape until Wednesday or later.


It was one of those "could-have-been-worse" sessions. While feeder issues settled no better than mixed (i.e., up 30 to off 72), mostly contracts closed 100 to 200 points above session lows thanks to late short-covering. On an estimated run of 10,400 head (up from 8,743 last week and 5,947 in 2016)), Oklahoma City sold feeder steers $5-$10 higher. A light test of their heifer mates were marked $3-$5 higher. CME cash feeder index: 11/03: $158.71, up $1.37.


Lean contracts closed mostly higher advancing by as much as 10 to 102 points. Spot December stood alone in closing lower (i.e., off 45 points). The summer months of 2018 managed to set new contract highs. The carcass value closed modestly higher as stronger sales butts, ribs and bellies offset weakness in picnics and hams. Pork cut-out: $80.25, up $0.17. CME cash lean index for 11/02: $69.28, off $0.14 (DTN Projected lean index for 11/03: $68.95, off $0.33).


Steady to $1 lower. Look for hog buyers to resume work in the morning by bidding steady to $1 lower.

For more from John, see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…


John Harrington