DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 14.1 million bushels (384,000 metric tonst) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18. Earlier, corn, soybeans and all three wheats were slightly higher for a change, trying to make stands while traders remain focused on harvest and plentiful wheat supplies.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was up 1 1/4 cents early Thursday, a small response to this week's selling that has taken place while the weather has been good for harvest. Two more days of favorable weather are expected before rain returns this weekend, mostly to the eastern and southern Midwest. These new corn piles are going to need demand help, but so far U.S. corn prices remain at a 9-cent disadvantage to Brazil's ports. Early Thursday, USDA reported last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 49.4 million bushels and 13.4 mb respectively, a bearish combination for the week that has total shipments down 46% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Technically, the trend in December corn has turned sideways, but 14.28 billion bushels of new supplies is keeping prices under bearish pressure. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.04 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and still holding above its August low. In outside markets, the stock market is expected to open lower, related to tensions between Spain and Catalonia while December gold is up $4.00.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 14.1 mb (384,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18. Before the announcement, November soybeans were up a penny Thursday, trying to make a stand after three days of lower prices. Harvest progress should have picked up with this week's drier weather and another two days will be helpful before rain returns to all but the western Midwest this weekend into early next week. Thanks to this year's active soybean demand and more recently, central Brazil's dry start to their new season, November soybean prices have held stubbornly higher. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 46.9 mb and 68.0 mb respectively, bearish amounts for the week. So far in 2017-18, total soybean shipments are down 7% from a year ago. Technically, the trend remains up in November soybeans in spite of another record U.S. harvest on the way. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.06 Wednesday, priced 78 cents below the November contract and down from its highest price in over two months.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents early, still holding above its August low by a narrow margin with a little help from commercial buying. Keep in mind though that commercial interest in wheat has all been related to cheap prices in the low $4s as futures spreads are showing full carry or more -- bearish signs of demand for wheat. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 22.6 mb and 11.6 mb respectively, bearish amounts for the week that still aren't making a dent in U.S. wheat supplies. Thursday's seven-day forecast shows chances for beneficial rains on the eastern edge of the southwestern Plains, which starts this weekend and also includes SRW wheat areas in the eastern Midwest. Planting progress is being described as slower-than-normal this year, but I continue to suspect that lower-than-expected plantings are more likely. Technically, the trend in both winter wheats remains sideways with prices under bearish pressure from plentiful world wheat supplies. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the December contract and holding above its August low.

Todd can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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