DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most fertilizers continued to move lower the first week of October 2017, but there were a couple of exceptions, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. For the third week in a row, two fertilizers are showing higher prices compared to a month ago.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $425 per ton, MAP $453/ton, 10-34-0 $413/ton, anhydrous $399/ton, UAN28 $208/ton and UAN32 $243/ton.

The remaining two fertilizers were higher compared to the month prior, with one fertilizer up by a notable amount. Urea was 7% higher compared to last month with an average price of $323 per ton. Potash was also up just slightly with an average price of $348 per ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.35/lb.N, anhydrous $0.24/lb.N, UAN28 $0.37/lb.N and UAN32 $0.38/lb.N.

In a DTN 360 Poll question posted from Sept. 14 to Oct. 10 on DTN websites, we asked: "With harvest approaching, fall fertilizer application is also not that far away. What best applies to how you are handling fertilizer purchases for fall application?"

With 385 total respondents, the majority, 52%, responded with choice 4: "Will not pre-order fertilizer at all for fall applications." Choice 3, "Will purchase fertilizer within the next month for fall application," was the next most popular response with 29%. That was followed by choice 2, "Pre-ordered fertilizer within the last month for fall application," at 12% and choice 1, "Pre-ordered fertilizer months ago for fall application," at 7%.

The data broken down by state showed the majority of respondents in most states responded that they will not pre-order fertilizer for fall applications.

The results of the poll are not surprising after talking with fertilizer retailers and farmers who say producers aren't motivated to lock in fertilizer needs with retail prices steady to declining for most of this calendar year.

That's not to say there weren't any interesting differences by state in the poll results.

One state, Illinois, had more respondents select choice 3, "Will purchase fertilizer within the next month for fall application." In other states, such as Indiana, Nebraska and Kansas, by far the vast majority of poll participants responded with choice 4, "Will not pre-order fertilizer at all for fall application."

Five of the eight major retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Only one of the five is double digits lower.

Anhydrous is now 15% lower from a year ago while 10-34-0 is 9% less expensive and UAN32 is 8% lower. UAN28 is 7% less expensive and DAP is 3% less expensive.

Three fertilizers are now higher compared to last year. MAP is 1% more expensive, urea is 3% higher and potash is now 12% more expensive.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Oct 3-7 2016	438	451	312	315
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	436	451	314	319
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	435	445	318	331
Dec 26-30 2016	431	443	321	336
Jan 23-27 2017	429	443	322	347
Feb 20-24 2017	433	452	332	359
Mar 20-24 2017	438	464	338	356
Apr 17-21 2017	438	466	339	352
May 15-19 2017	437	471	340	350
Jun 12-16 2017	437	470	341	338
Jul 10-14 2017	436	467	340	321
Aug 7-11 2017	434	462	339	311
Sep 4-8 2017	431	458	338	302
Oct 2-6 2017	425	453	348	323
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Oct 3-7 2016	454	472	224	263
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016	452	471	244	262
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016	447	465	217	256
Dec 26-30 2016	437	466	217	254
Jan 23-27 2017	436	480	235	268
Feb 20-24 2017	440	490	241	276
Mar 20-24 2017	441	507	248	280
Apr 17-21 2017	437	509	247	280
May 15-19 2017	436	510	248	283
Jun 12-16 2017	435	500	246	278
Jul 10-14 2017	431	451	235	268
Aug 7-11 2017	440	419	224	258
Sep 4-8 2017	418	413	215	248
Oct 2-6 2017	413	399	208	243

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/BAS)

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