DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans, and all three wheats were steady to a little lower early Monday, Columbus Day. Due to the holiday, USDA's weekly reports of export inspections and crop progress will be released Tuesday.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was steady early Monday, staying near $3.50 with sub-freezing temperatures expected in the northwestern Plains early Tuesday morning. A wide swath of rain from Nebraska to Minnesota over the past week and weekend rains over the eastern Midwest have delayed harvest activity, but corn prices are showing no concern. Meanwhile, the spot U.S. rack average price for propane is just shy of a dollar a gallon, up from 64 cents at the end of June as propane inventories have already started declining on the season. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in corn with 47,103 net shorts as of Oct. 3. Commercials increased net longs to 29,074, finding attractive value at these low prices. Technically, December corn remains in a downtrend, but the Aug. 31 low of $3.44 1/4 still holds as a possible seasonal low as harvest progresses. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.05 Friday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and has held roughly even for over a month. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.09 while December gold is up $8.10.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 1 3/4 cents early, holding roughly steady for over a month while traders wait to learn more about what could be another record soybean harvest in 2017. There has been quite a bit of rain across the Midwest the past week and the central Midwest is in for more the next five days. USDA's update of harvest progress will come out Tuesday afternoon due to Monday's Columbus Day. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in soybeans with 38,134 contracts net long. Commercials covered their remaining net longs and turned slightly net short. Active soybean demand has kept November soybeans in the mid to upper $9s for over a month and that should continue with FOB soybean prices 16 cents cheaper at the U.S. Gulf than at Brazil's ports. Technically, November soybeans remain in an uptrend, but harvest pressure has encouraged resistance at $9.90. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.94 Friday, priced 79 cents below the November contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents early Monday, maintaining a sideways course for nearly two months while the next winter wheat crop is being planted in the U.S. Lower U.S. plantings and adverse weather helped knock USDA's estimate of ending U.S. wheat stocks down from 1.18 billion to 933 million bushels in 2017-18. At 44% of annual use, that is still a lot of wheat and USDA's estimate is not likely to change much in Thursday's WASDE report. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in Chicago wheat with 19,142 net shorts. Commercials reduced net longs from 29,706 to 27,314, but continue to find these lower prices somewhat attractive. Early in the final calendar quarter of 2017, Chicago wheat prices lack a bullish fundamental argument and are likely to keep trading sideways in the low to mid $4s. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.04 Friday, priced 40 cents below the December contract and near its highest close in six weeks.

Todd can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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