DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans and wheat were all starting lower Monday but still maintaining sideways movement in corn and wheat. Soybeans pulled back from Friday's new seven-week closing high, with harvest getting ready to pick up across the Midwest.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was down 1 1/2 cents early Monday with rain falling in the western Plains while the rest of the Corn Belt is expected to remain mostly dry through this week. Monday's report of weekly corn inspections is likely to be down again from last year, although it should help moving forward that FOB corn prices at the Gulf are now competitive with Brazil's ports. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials bearish in corn with 38,025 net shorts as of Sept. 19. Commercials increased net longs to 18,850 contracts, a supportive sign for corn prices that continue to trade above their August low of $3.44 1/4. So far, the trend in December corn remains down, but prices have held roughly sideways in September. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.08 Friday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and still up from its lowest price in 11 months. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.38 after Germany's election kept Angela Merkel in power but saw more votes for a pro-nationalist, anti-EU party in parliament.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents early, reacting back from Friday's new seven-week closing high, with prices still facing the possibility of a record soybean harvest this fall. It also did not help prices that December Malaysian palm oil fell 1.7% overnight to its lowest close in a month. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bullish in soybeans with 20,124 net longs as of Sept. 19. Commercials trimmed net longs from 32,292 to 14,987, but the fact that commercials are still long when prices were near six-week highs is another vote of confidence for how active soybean demand has been. Brazil's FOB soybean prices are up over 40 cents a bushel in September so far, likely tied to their dry start for planting. That is helping U.S. soybean export business and also helping to keep the trend of November soybean prices higher into harvest. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.12 Friday, priced 73 cents below the November contract and at its highest close in seven weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents early Monday, quietly easing back from last week's challenge of its five-week high and not showing any concern about this week's forecast for heavy rain amounts in western Texas. Monday morning's showers in western and central Kansas will be seen as beneficial for winter wheat ahead of Monday afternoon's weekly update on planting progress. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in Chicago wheat with 30,379 net shorts as of Sept. 19. Commercials were net long 34,341 contracts. That is the same familiar pattern we have seen in Chicago wheat since 2013 and points to the likelihood of stable, sideways prices ahead as the northern Hemisphere growing season draws to a close. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.06 Friday, priced 43 cents below the December contract and near its highest close in five weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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