DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2017-18. Earlier, corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were all starting lower, the same as most commodities with bearish influence from Wednesday's post-Fed rally in the U.S. dollar. Thursday's weekly report of export sales was neutral for soybeans, but bearish for corn and wheat.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was down a quarter-cent early Thursday, keeping a low profile near its 2017 low as crops continue to mature in the field. Thursday morning's weather map shows rain in southern Iowa and scattered light showers in North Dakota in advance of a five-day forecast that expects moderate to heavy rain amounts from the Texas Panhandle, up through Minnesota. The central and eastern Corn Belt is expected to stay mostly dry with warm temperatures. On the demand side, U.S. corn exports are off to a slow start in 2017-18. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 20.7 and 27.7 million bushels respectively, a bearish combination which puts early shipments down 49% from a year ago as recent FOB corn prices continue to slightly favor exports from South America. Technically, December corn remains in a downtrend, but is showing signs of possible support as we get closer to harvest with early interest from the commercial sector. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.06 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and still up from its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.09, but still higher after Wednesday's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. December gold is down $22.80, breaking to a new three-week low.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2017-18. Earlier Thursday, November soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents, not showing any significant benefit from Wednesday's big soybean sale announcement of 40.1 million bushels, mostly to unknown for 2017-18. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 85.9 and 34.7 million bushels respectively, an active, yet neutral start that has total shipments up 4% from a year ago in the second week of 2017-18. Thursday morning's rain in southern Iowa may offer some late benefit to crops, but it is hard to expect much this late in the season. There have been plenty of questions about the last two crop estimates from USDA, but if October's WASDE report supports another record harvest, prices may continue to find themselves trapped between big supplies on one hand and active demand on the other. The next injection of uncertainty looks like the dry start to Brazil's planting season and so far, the one-week forecast still looks dry. Technically, the trend in November soybeans is up, but a sideways range through harvest time is possible. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.00 Wednesday, priced 70 cents below the November contract and down from its highest close in six weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was down 2 cents early Thursday with traders reluctant to push prices above their five-week high. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.3 and 15.7 million bushels respectively, a bearish combination for the week that still has total wheat shipments up 1% in 2017-18 from a year ago. The southwestern U.S. Plains are expected to stay mostly dry Thursday, but have heavy amounts expected from Texas, up through Nebraska and into Minnesota the next seven days. Overall, the moisture is likely to be beneficial to the next winter wheat crop, but there may be some areas of local problems included. After a long, downward slide in July and August, December Chicago wheat is now supporting a sideways range in the low $4s and that seems likely to continue for the rest of 2017 as we enter what is typically a quieter period of trading. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.06 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in a month.

Toddcan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter@ToddHultman1

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