DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18, starting the sixth consecutive trading session with a soybean sale. Corn, soybeans, and all three wheats were steady to lower earlier Friday with a monthly soybean crush report due out later Friday morning.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was down 1 1/4 cents early Friday with scattered showers in the northwestern Plains and chances for rain from Minnesota to Missouri over the weekend. At this point, the corn crop needs time to mature and so far, temperatures are staying warm enough for that to happen. With most crops still in the field and not much else going on, trading in corn is apt to be quiet on Friday, likely keeping a modest loss for the week after USDA estimated a 14.18 billion bushel crop on Tuesday. Technically, December corn remains in a downtrend, but even after Tuesday's bearish USDA report, prices are holding above the August low of $3.44 1/4 as we approach that time of year when seasonal lows are typically made. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.10 Thursday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.39, staying near its lowest prices in over two years after two major hurricanes likely delayed Fed plans to raise interest rates.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18. November soybeans were down 3 cents earlier Friday, a slight pullback after prices reached their highest level in over four weeks on Thursday. Since Tuesday's bearish USDA report, commercial buyers have been active in both, soybeans and meal and Friday's export sale announcement was USDA's sixth in the last six trading sessions. Soybean prices were also helped by the sight of increased dry areas on Thursday's Drought Monitor map and early dry weather in Brazil. Later Friday morning, the National Oilseed Processors Association will release its monthly soybean crush estimates for August and a Wall Street Journal survey expects to see 136 million bushels crushed, up from 131.8 million bushels a year ago. The weekly trend in November soybeans remains up with the help of commercial buying in the mid $9s. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.09 Thursday, priced 67 cents below the November contract and at its highest close in over six weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was steady early Friday, likely setting up for a quiet finish to a week that saw a bullish outside reversal on WASDE report day. The reversal doesn't mean that prices are headed back up to $5.50, but more likely, that winter wheat's downtrend is over and prices are ready for a choppy, sideways range, helped by the appearance of commercial support in the low $4s. With USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks-to-use ratio at 36%, its highest in 18 years, it is going to be difficult for wheat prices to see a significant rally for the next several months. Here in the U.S., the seven-day forecast remains mostly dry with hotter temperatures across the southwestern Plains where a new season of winter wheat planting has begun. Winter wheat prices should have support for a sideways range in the low $4s. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.00 Thursday, priced 43 cents below the December contract and near its highest price in a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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