DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 3 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 15 1/2 cents in the November contract and up 13 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 1/4 cent in the December Chicago contract, up 2 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City and down 11 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.39 at 91.88. December gold is up $4.20 at $1,332.20 while December silver is down 5 cents and December copper is down $0.0205. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45 at 22,204. October crude oil is up $0.55 at $49.85. October heating oil is up $0.0083 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0181 and October natural gas is up $0.020.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents Thursday on light volume, receiving a little benefit from soybeans' bullish influence. Corn prices have held steady since Tuesday's bearish crop estimate of 14.18 billion bushels from USDA and, given how cheap prices are, commercials have likely been part of the supporting force. Early Thursday, USDA released its first week of export sales and shipment data for 2017-18, posting 41.2 million bushels and 28.1 mb respectively, a neutral combination for the week. FOB corn prices show Brazilian ports roughly 12 cents a bushel cheaper than at the U.S. Gulf so export business is likely to keep favoring Brazil, possibly until the end of 2017. Here in the U.S., the Corn Belt has been dry, but there are chances for moderate showers across the central and northwestern Plains in the five-day forecast. More importantly, temperatures are expected to remain warm while crops mature in the field. Technically, the trend remains down in December corn, but if prices stay above the August low of $3.44 1/4, it could be a possible sign of support as we get closer to harvest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.07 Wednesday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in nine months. There were 87 deliveries of September corn early Thursday. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.39, even though the U.S. Labor Department said consumer prices were up .4% in August and up 1.9% from a year ago, slightly more than expected by Dow Jones' sources. December gold is up $4.20.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 15 1/2 cents Thursday at its highest close in over four weeks, boosted by commercial buying in soybean meal and some fresh weather concerns. December soybean meal also posted its highest close in over four weeks, ending up $7.70 as active demand continues to offset concerns over the possibility of another record soybean harvest. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed an expanded area of abnormally dry conditions in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and eastern North Dakota, adding more room for doubt around USDA's prediction of a record high 4.43 billion bushel soybean crop. At the same time, Brazil's planting season is off to a dry start and the forecast remains dry for the week ahead. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of 2017-18 soybeans totaled 59.2 mb and 42.3 mb respectively, a neutral combination for the week. USDA later added 7.3 mb (198,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2017-18, the fifth soybean sale in five consecutive sessions. The trend remains up in soybeans with active commercial support outweighing concerns over USDA's heavy crop estimate. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.94 Wednesday, priced 66 cents below the November contract and down from its highest prices in four weeks. Among September contracts, delivery intentions totaled 115 for soybean meal, 316 for soybean oil, and there were none for soybeans early Thursday.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat finished off a quarter-cent Thursday, not showing any concern for a forecast that expects mostly dry weather and hot temperatures in the southwestern Plains the next five days while a new season of winter wheat planting is getting started. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.6 mb and 16.4 mb respectively, lower amounts that were still likely affected by Hurricane Harvey. Even so, actual wheat shipments in 2017-18 are up 3% from last year's pace. Fundamentally, everything about world wheat supplies is bearish with USDA estimating the highest world ending stocks-to-use ratio in 18 years. None of that is new news, however, and for that reason, December Chicago wheat prices show signs of leveling out and should be ready for a sideways range, thanks to commercial support in the low $4s. September Chicago wheat expired Thursday with a boost of commercial buying, showing a final trade of $4.28 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents from Wednesday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.99 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in four months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.60, up from its lowest price in four months. Among September wheat contracts, delivery intentions totaled 4 for Chicago, 19 for K.C., and 1 for Minneapolis early Thursday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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