DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the September contract and up 3/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 1 3/4 cents in the September contract and down 2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 6 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 4 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.51 at 91.83. December gold is down $16.60 at $1,334.60 while December silver is down 23 cents and December copper is up $0.0275. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 263 at 22,060. October crude oil is up $0.52 at $48.00. October heating oil is down $0.0245 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0160 and October natural gas is up $0.059.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3/4 cent Monday on light volume, one day before USDA's next WASDE report is released. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to lower its estimate of corn yield from 169.5 to 167.8 bushels an acre for a crop that is still expected to reach 14 billion bushels. Conditions were mostly dry over the weekend across the Corn Belt and are expected to stay that way the next five days with chances for moderate showers in the northwestern Plains while southeastern states see heavier amounts from Tropical Storm Irma. There is still no significant threat of freeze in the Corn Belt. Monday morning, USDA said 26.1 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, the first official week of 2017-18. With South America riding a much larger crop this year, corn inspections are off to a slow start and may stay that way through the rest of 2017. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials turned slightly bearish in corn, holding 14,000 net shorts as of Sep. 5. Commercials were also net short 5,432 contracts, still reluctant to go long corn ahead of harvest. Technically, the trend in corn remains down, but the low of $3.44 1/4 on the final day of August remains a contender for this year's seasonal low. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.11 Friday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in nine months. There were 2 deliveries of September corn early Monday. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.51, one of several markets that seems relieved that Irma's damage was not worse than it was.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 2 cents on light volume ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report with concerns that USDA's yield estimate from August may not change much. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to lower the yield estimate from 49.4 to 48.7 bushels an acre, still allowing for a record harvest of 4.32 billion bushels. Tuesday's report may offer a clue as to how much August rains helped the western Midwest versus the parts of Iowa and Illinois where crops stayed dry, but keep in mind USDA's margin of error in September remains high. USDA said earlier Monday that 40.6 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export in the first week of 2017-18, a decent amount, but still a little less than USDA's estimated export pace. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials roughly neutral toward soybeans with 2,044 net shorts as of Sep. 5. Commercials reduced net longs from 49,981 to 32,300, but still found soybean values attractive. The weekly trend in soybeans remains up with active commercial support propping up prices ahead of harvest. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.98 Friday, priced 64 cents below the November contract and near its highest prices in four weeks. Among September contracts, delivery intentions totaled 75 for soybean meal and 399 for soybean oil early Monday.

Wheat

December Chicago wheat closed down 3 cents Monday with USDA about to show that a new season of winter wheat planting has begun. DTN's National HRW Wheat Index is 50 cents higher than a year ago, but still well below USDA's estimate of production costs for all wheat so it will be interesting to see what producers decide to plant in the new season. The anticipation of Tuesday's WASDE report also played a part in Monday's lower wheat prices as another reminder of record-high world ending wheat stocks never helps bullish arguments. Earlier Monday, USDA said 16.4 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, more than the previous week, but still hindered by Hurricane Harvey. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials moderately bearish in Chicago wheat with 36,031 net shorts as of Sep. 5. Commercials increased net longs to 39,611, finding value in wheat's lower prices, but still letting the market come to them. Technically, the trends in both winter wheats remains down, but prices are cheap enough that support should be near. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.93 Wednesday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in four months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.58, up from its lowest price in four months. Among September wheat contracts, delivery intentions totaled 4 for Chicago, 7 for K.C., and 14 for Minneapolis early Monday. September grain futures expire early on Thursday, Sep. 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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