DTN's Quick Takes

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

Grains

OMAHA (DTN) -- Not much has changed in the meat markets over the last hour with live cattle still up about $1.00, feeder cattle mixed, and lean hogs under pressure from solid commercial selling. The October contract is off $1.30 and the Dec is down $1.00. Corn is 4 cents higher while soybean meal has extended its rally to $7.50. The DJIA has extended its loss to 48 points while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.02. Crude oil is down $0.05 and gold is sitting $3.00 higher.

Posted 12:00 -- Soybeans are holding together relatively well heading to the latter stages of Friday's session; the November contract still showing a gain of 11 cents. Support continues to come from commercial buying, though there are reports that basis is weakening in cash markets in response to the strong rally. Corn is up 3 cents while Chicago wheat is off 2 cents. Outside markets are mixed with crude oil down $0.12, gold up $3.00, Dec cotton up $0.18, and the rest of the softs lower. The U.S. dollar index is now up 0.01 for the day as the DJIA still shows a loss of 35 points.

Posted 10:52 -- Wheat...poor wheat. Chicago finds itself 4 cents below unchanged at midday with Kansas City not far behind. Minneapolis continues to show a modest gain of 2 cents, but could slip back in the red soon. Dec corn is up 2 cents, as trade volume (futures only) remains relatively low at 86,000 contracts. Soybeans are still showing a double-digit gain, November is up 10 cents, though 4 cents off its high. Crude oil is holding at $0.03 higher and gold is up $4.00. The U.S. dollar index is of 0.15, quietly, and the DJIA is down 27 points. Cotton has moved back into the plus-side of unchanged on midday commercial buying.

Posted 09:47 -- Soybeans continue to move higher with nearby Nov posting a new high for this 5-wave uptrend of $9.85. Recall from Early Word Grains commentary that the next target area was between $9.84 and $9.99. Strong commercial buying continues to be seen, as indicated by the weakening carry in the market's forward curve. Corn has decided to try to run with soybeans, though following at a distance. The Dec contract has moved as much as 6 cents higher for the day, though flat futures spreads would indicate most of the interest is coming from noncommercial traders. Chicago wheat is up 1 cent, Kansas City is 2 cents higher and Minneapolis spring wheat has rallied 5 cents Friday. Gold continues to show a modest gain of $5.00, while crude oil has climbed $0.05 above unchanged. The U.S. dollar index and DJIA remain under pressure, to the tune of 0.26 and 7 points respectively. Cotton is lower on light pressure from commercial selling with the rest of the softs complex mixed.

Posted 08:39 -- Soybeans continue to move higher with November spiking to a high of $9.82, up 11 1/4 cents, on the open. The contract immediately pulled back to a gain of 8 cents. Corn is, well, corn meaning Dec is up a whopping 1 cent. Wheat quickly lost its bullish enthusiasm with Chicago Dec fractionally lower shortly after the open. Outside markets are mixed with cotton under pressure once again and the rest of the softs higher. Crude oil is down as the rest of the energy complex rallies, and gold is up a mere $2.30 following Thursday’s sharp sell-off. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.11 and the DJIA is off 7 points.

Livestock

Posted 11:48 -- The clock is ticking down on the release of the September Cattle-on-Feed report (numbers as of September 1), and live cattle contracts continue to show solid $1.00-plus gains. Futures spreads have flattened, indicating most of the support continues to come from noncommercial traders. Feeder cattle are mixed with October slightly lower and November $0.75 higher. Lean hogs remain under commercial pressure with the October off $1.175 and December down $0.85. Crude oil has slipped back below unchanged, down $0.10, while gold just sits almost $4 higher for the day. The U.S. dollar index has trimmed its loss to only 0.05 while the DJIA is still showing a loss of 27 points. Corn is almost 3 cents higher as soybean meal holds a nearly $4.50 gain.

Posted 10:32 -- Live cattle are starting to build bullish momentum ahead of Friday afternoon's Cattle-on-Feed report, raising the age-old question, "Where's Beeks?" October live are up just over $1 with Dec rallying $0.95. Feeders are following at a distance, with October gaining about $0.60. Lean hogs continues to see heavy commercial selling in the October, with the contract losing $1.20 versus the $0.80 dip in December. Corn has calmed, though still up 3 cents, while bean meal is showing a gain of $4. Crude oil is slowly extending its rally, up $0.10, while gold sits $3.60 higher for the day. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 and the DJIA is off 32 points.

Posted 09:39 -- Lean hogs remain the story in the meat complex with the October contract still off $1.15 and Dec down $0.85. This continues to indicate commercial selling. Cattle markets have rallied, with live up roughly $0.70 and feeders lightly mixed. Traders in both markets may start to move to the sidelines ahead of this afternoon's Cattle-on-Feed report. Corn has rallied a nickel, supported by spillover buying from soybeans. Soybean meal is on its high for the day, with the October contract up $4.60. Energies are all to the plus-side of unchanged with crude oil up $0.05. Gold continues to show a modest rally of $5.00. The U.S. dollar index is off 0.29 while the DJIA is down only 5 points.

Posted 08:42 -- Meat markets are lower early Friday with lean hogs continuing to lead the way. Nearby October is off $1.50 while Dec is down $1.15, indicating commercial selling continues to put pressure on the market. Live cattle are showing a modest loss of $0.10 in the December, while feeders are also down slightly early in the day. Corn is higher, but only fractionally, while soybean meal has rallied $2.60 on continued commercial buying. The DJIA is down 14 points shortly after its open with the U.S. dollar index off 0.13. Gold has posted a small gain of $2.50 while crude oil has drifted $0.13 lower.

(BE)

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