DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 2 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 2 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans closedup 5 3/4 cents in the September and up 4 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents in the December Chicago, up 2 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 8 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.13 at 92.75. December gold is up $7.50 at $1,329.70 while December silver is up $0.22 and December copper is up 0.0205. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 62 at 22,010. October crude oil is down $0.11 at $47.12. October heating oil is up $0.0038, October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0372, and October natural gas is up $0.037.

For the week:

September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December closed up 1 3/4 cents. September soybeans were up 3 cents while the November was up 5 cents. December Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents, December Kansas City wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was down 37 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 1/2 cents Friday, but was up 1 1/4 cents on the week, following Thursday's sharp rebound with a modest pullback as many are wondering if Thursday's low was this year's seasonal low in corn. It is still about a month early, but is within the realm of possibility as last year's low was made on Aug. 31 and the fact that increased volume accompanied Tuesday's and Wednesday's lower prices looked like a classic example of traders throwing in the towel. Also, it is encouraging how cash prices in DTN's national index rebounded from a two-day test below $3.00. Looking ahead, corn prices are still going to face plenty of harvest talk the next couple of months and U.S. corn exports may be slow until the end of 2017 while Brazil's supplies under-cut the U.S. on price. Technically, December corn remains in a downtrend and we have yet to see strong evidence yet of commercial interest in U.S. corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.08 Thursday, priced 50 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.13 after bearish news of a lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll increase in August was offset by a bullish report that ISM's index of U.S. manufacturing hit 58.8 in August, its highest level in six years, reported RTTNews.com.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents Friday and eked out a nickel gain for the week as the demand side of the market continues to help support prices. While much of this week's attention was on flooding in Texas and Louisiana, the Midwest was mostly dry with light scattered showers offering limited late-season help. In spite of this year's wide range of weather challenges, there is still a chance of seeing another record soybean harvest this fall and that continues to make it difficult for soybean prices to trade significantly higher. On the other hand, from a contrarian point of view, it is impressive that concerns of another record soybean crop have not been bearish enough to take prices to new lows since June and it is fair to wonder if this market will be ripe for a significant post-harvest rally. For now, November soybeans remain in a downtrend, but have held steady to higher since Aug. 16. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.83 Thursday, priced 63 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June. Among September contracts, Friday morning's delivery intentions totaled one for soybeans, 200 for soybean meal, and 461 for soybean oil.

Wheat

December Chicago wheat futures ended up 4 1/4 cents Friday and were up 3 1/2 cents on the week, starting to show signs of support after eight weeks of falling prices, which turned noncommercial traders bearish in the process. Commercials have been passive buyers in Chicago wheat lately, but kicked it up a notch on Friday, pushing the September contract up 10 1/4 cents, while no deliveries have been reported for Chicago wheat. The seven-day forecast is mostly dry and favorable for spring wheat harvest in the northwestern U.S. and western Canada, but there are red flag warnings in Montana where conditions have been too dry all summer. After one brief rally in late-June and early-July, winter wheat prices are back to cheaper levels where it appears commercials are showing enough interest to support a sideways range. Friday afternoon's CFTC report will show us if noncommercials have yet abandoned their net longs in K.C. wheat. For now, Chicago and K.C. wheat prices remain in downtrends, but with cash prices near their lowest level in four months, support should be near. In the case of spring wheat, December Minneapolis fell to new lows this week and is still looking for a range where it can trade late in 2017. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.86 Thursday, priced 48 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in four months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.46, also up from its lowest price in four months. Among September wheat contracts, delivery intentions totaled 275 for K.C., 114 for Minneapolis, and there were none for Chicago early Friday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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