DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Earlier, December corn was down a penny and November soybeans were unchanged with another day of mostly dry weather across the Midwest. Harvey's rains were moving eastward out of Texas and are expected to drop moderate to heavy amounts near the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was down 1 cent early Thursday, staying near its lows for the year with DTN's national index of cash corn prices below $3.00 for a second day. The Midwest is expected to be mostly dry again Thursday and the next seven days with the heaviest rains staying close to the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The hopeful news in the seven-day forecast is that it shows rain leaving the Texas/Louisiana area. On the demand side, export activity continues to slow. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 7.4 and 38.7 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination that keeps total exports up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago with one week remaining. For 2017-18, corn sales totaled 31.7 million bushels. With crops maturing in the field, December corn remains under bearish pressure, largely because potential buyers have been absent ahead of harvest. Noncommercial liquidation likely took place this week as well as some bin cleaning. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $2.95 Wednesday, priced 50 cents below the December contract and near its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.43, still finding support from Wednesday's higher-than-expected increase in real U.S. GDP.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Earlier, November soybeans were unchanged after a quiet overnight session which included news that an index of manufacturing in China increased a little more than expected in August. The seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the Midwest with rain from Hurricane Harvey staying south of Illinois and Indiana where crops could use more. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 4.5 and 25.2 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination for the week. On the brighter side, the report did show positive sales and put total exports up 15% in 2016-17 from a year ago with one more week to go. New-crop soybean sales totaled 57.3 million bushels. While November soybeans remain under bearish pressure with a record harvest still possible, downward momentum has stalled and prices continue to hold above the June low of $9.07, thanks to commercial support in the low $9s. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.72 Wednesday, priced 61 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents early, slowly showing a little more support each day that new lows aren't made. August has been an especially bearish month for Chicago wheat this year with prices suffering a loss of nearly 70 cents. Traders abandoned this market after it became clear that production increases in other places like Russia and Europe were going to keep world supplies high in spite of this year's problems in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. Statistics Canada just estimated Canada's wheat crop at 25.5 mmt, the smallest in six years and below USDA's estimate of 26.5 mmt. The U.S. wheat season is now almost over with one-fourth of the spring wheat harvest left to finish with a dry forecast helping. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 19.7 and 26.4 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bullish combination for the week. Total wheat exports are off to a good start in 2017-18, up 15% from a year ago, but the pace is likely to slow for a while after this week's Texas hurricane. So far, the trends remain down for winter wheat, but prices are getting cheap enough to be near support and downward momentum is slowing. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.77 Wednesday, priced 52 cents below the December contract and near its lowest prices in four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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