DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was unchanged in the September contract and up 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 6 1/4 cents in the September contract and up 8 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 7 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City and up 11 3/4 cent in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 at 93.14. December gold is down $2.80 at $1,291.90 while September silver is down 8 cents and September copper is up $0.0545. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4 at 21,816. October crude oil is down $0.97 at $47.44. October heating oil is down $0.0048 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0244 and October natural gas is up $0.020.

Corn:

December corn closed up a half cent, keeping a low profile after posting a new contract low on Wednesday while Thursday's weather map was mostly dry across the Midwest with light scattered showers around Iowa. Thursday's new U.S. Drought Monitor showed slight improvement in the Dakotas, Nebraska and Iowa, while central Illinois turned drier. Variable conditions continue to be the theme for row crops in 2017, and the best chances for light to moderate showers in the latest seven-day forecast are in the central and eastern Midwest. On the demand side, exports remain slow, but are still 22% higher than a year ago. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 4.0 million bushels and 28.5 mb respectively, a neutral combination with two weeks remaining in 2016-17. New-crop corn sales totaled 16.7 mb, but face competition from cheaper supplies in Brazil. Even though U.S. corn production will be down in 2017, commercials are showing no concern about obtaining supplies, and that is keeping December prices under bearish pressure as we approach harvest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.05 Wednesday, priced 37 cents below the September contract and at a new 2017 low. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.07, still trading near its lowest prices in two years ahead of this week's gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents, aided by commercial buying in soybean meal and in spite of USDA reporting cancellations of soybean sales. Early Thursday, USDA said old-crop soybean sales showed net cancellations of 14.7 mb while shipments totaled 25.8 mb, a neutral showing for the week when including 73.8 mb of new-crop soybean sales. Add in Wednesday's cancellation and total soybean sales and shipments are now 57 mb above USDA's export estimate for 2016-17. USDA later added that China bought 4.85 mb (132,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18. It is a little tricky to keep our eye on the soybean in this shell game, but overall, China's demand is transitioning to the new-crop season and remains active. Drier conditions have been a concern in Illinois lately, so it will be interesting to see if moderate amounts in the seven-day forecast show up as planned. With a record soybean harvest still possible in 2017, November soybeans remain under bearish pressure but are making a show of good support in the low $9s. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.77 Wednesday, priced 61 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents with futures spreads finally showing signs of commercial buying near wheat's lowest spot prices this year. The only significant news for wheat came early when USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 14.2 mb and 18.3 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bullish combination which has total shipments up 14% in 2017-18 from a year ago, and well above USDA's estimated pace. Hurricane Harvey is expected to arrive near Corpus Christi, Texas, late Friday and will bring strong winds and heavy rains, possibly damaging cotton crops, but winter wheat harvest has long been over, and wheat prices should not be affected. Meanwhile, the final third of the spring wheat harvest is being completed with no major obstacles expected to stand in the way. Winter wheat prices will have a lot of competition from world supplies in the year ahead, but should be cheap enough to support a sideways trading range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.75 Wednesday, priced 28 cents below the September contract and at its lowest price in over three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.32, its lowest price in over three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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