DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 cents in the September contract and down 3 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents in the September contract and up 1 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 8 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 8 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 12 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.48 at 93.49. December gold is down $6.70 at $1,290.00 while September silver is down 4 cents and September copper is up $0.0055. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177 at 21,880. October crude oil is up $0.39 at $47.92. October heating oil is up $0.0215 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0098 and October natural gas is down $0.026.

Corn:

December corn closed down 3 cents Tuesday with scattered showers stretched from eastern Kansas across the eastern Midwest, heavy in some spots like Kansas City where flooding occurred. The Midwest is not expecting much rain the next seven days while the better chances are across the southern U.S. Temperatures are expected to stay mild through the end of August. Late Monday, USDA said 76% of corn had reached dough stage and 29% was dented, down from the five-year average of 35% dented for this time of year. 62% of corn was rated either good or excellent, the same as a week ago. 14% of Illinois corn rated poor or very poor, up from 11% last week. While this year's corn crop is slower to develop, there is no threat of early freeze seen in the current fall forecast. For now, December corn continues to trickle to new lows in 2017, in line with its seasonal tendency and anticipating a corn harvest near 14 billion bushels this fall. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.12 Monday, priced 37 cents below the September contract and at a new 2017 low. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.48 with financial traders waiting to see if the Federal Reserve Chairman gives any interest rate hints at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 1 1/4 cents Tuesday, finding moral support once again from a new contract high in October palm oil futures and a modest, quarter-cent gain in December soybean oil. The 24-hour rainfall map as of Tuesday morning showed the heavy amounts that led to flooding around Kansas City, but also more beneficial amounts around the central Midwest, including western and southern Iowa and western Illinois. Tuesday's rain stretched across the eastern Midwest, but not much more is expected across the Midwest the next seven days. Late Monday, USDA said 87% of soybeans were setting pods, in line with their usual pace. Sixty percent of soybeans were rated good or excellent, still showing the lowest DTN Soybean Condition Index in five years. No drastic changes were noted, but it is interesting that poor-to-very poor ratings are at double-digit levels in nine states. November soybeans remain under bearish pressure with a record harvest still possible this fall, but prices continue to hold above June's low of $9.07, thanks to active demand. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.75 Monday, priced 62 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed down 8 cents at another new contract low, still failing to find willing buyers with cash prices at their lowest level in over three months. It is a little hard to comprehend how wheat prices can't find any buying interest in either Chicago or K.C. after a year in which U.S. wheat production dropped at least 25%, but part of the problem continues to be that noncommercials need to liquidate failing positions in K.C. and Minneapolis. With spot wheat prices back near their lowest levels in 10 years, we could make a case that winter wheat prices have fallen too far, too fast. However, potential buyers can afford to be choosy while USDA is estimating record world ending wheat stocks in 2017-18. The result is that wheat may be in for another long winter of low prices. Late Monday, USDA said 58% of spring wheat was harvested and the seven-day forecast supports further harvest progress in the northwestern U.S. Moderate to heavy showers across the Southern Plains should help this fall's planting of winter wheat as the cycle continues. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.80 Monday, priced 29 cents below the September contract and at its lowest price in over three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.41, its lowest price in over three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.