Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial western Midwest rain, and possible impact from drier and hotter trends in Russia, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

RAIN BENEFITS IOWA

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for improvement to crop prospects, especially soybeans, in the western Midwest following rainfall last week and during the weekend and early this week. The rain area includes portions of Iowa that have been repeatedly bypassed by storm systems earlier this summer. Some flooding is also noted in areas of Nebraska and Minnesota. Mostly favorable conditions for filling crops are in effect in the eastern Midwest, although parts of central Illinois could use more rain.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Southern Plains crop areas will have periods of showers throughout the week, along with periods of cooler conditions. Cotton may benefit from the added rainfall, especially through southern growing areas, but would probably prefer more sunshine in some sections.

SLIGHT BENEFIT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Northern Plains, showers this week in eastern and southern areas may favor filling corn and soybeans but, in general, a below-normal rainfall pattern continues.

MIXED PRAIRIES MOISTURE

Across the Canadian Prairies, later-week rain is forecast through central and northern Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan. This maintains favorable conditions for late-filling canola but may be unfavorable for maturing canola and for harvesting of spring grains. No significant concerns for the harvest of a drought-reduced spring wheat crop elsewhere in the region. Dryness will continue to stress late filling crops in southern areas of the Prairies.

RECENT RUSSIA HEAT

Above- to well-above-normal temperatures with little rainfall have been noted through much of Ukraine and Russia during the past two weeks but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia. This has likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and is probably impacting yield prospects at this time. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. This may limit the amount of damage that could occur to corn. However oilseeds, including soybeans and sunflower, are more susceptible to below normal rainfall and above or well above normal temperatures during August.

FAVORABLE CHINA FORECAST

In northeast China, conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time due to recent generous rainfall. However, more rain will be needed to support filling crops as seasonal rains remain below normal. The forecast includes some chance for periodic showers and cooler conditions during this week.

WEEKEND INDIA RAIN

Key India growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans area in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra had been drier and warmer for much of last week. However, late in the week and during the weekend, rain returned to the region. Rain, so far, was heaviest in southern areas of west Madhya Pradesh, in Maharashtra and in eastern areas of Gujarat.

This rain was especially beneficial to crop areas of Maharashtra. The forecast suggests that rain will increase in west Gujarat during the next few days.

VARIABLE AUSTRALIA RAIN

Significant rainfall totals have occurred recently in wheat areas of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria. This will favor overwinter development of wheat. More rain is still needs in parts of the area after dryness earlier in the season.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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