DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 cents in the September contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 8 1/2 cents in the September contract and up 7 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 5 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 1/2 cent in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 93.53. December gold is up $8.00 at $1,290.90 while September silver is up 7 cents and September copper is down $0.0200. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 180 at 21,844. September crude oil is up $0.34 at $47.12. September heating oil is up $0.0078 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0196 and September natural gas is up $0.046.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents Thursday on light volume, its lowest close in eleven months as the market continues to anticipate a smaller, but still significant fall harvest. Thursday saw scattered showers around the Great Lakes and eastern Midwest while the western and central Midwest stayed drier with their next chances for rain coming early next week. Thursday's updated U.S. Drought Monitor showed a patch of extreme drought in south-central Iowa for the first time this year which was also missed by Wednesday's rain. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 2.5 and 27.4 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to put total shipments up 23% from a year ago with three weeks left in the 2016-17 season. New-crop corn sales totaled 26.4 million bushels. Even though the 2017 corn crop will be smaller than a year ago, the anticipated harvest is still large enough to keep December corn prices under bearish pressure, possibly until early October when seasonal lows are typically made. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.14 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the September contract and at a new 2017 low. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 after Wednesday's FOMC minutes showed mixed views on inflation and interest rate expectations.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 7 3/4 cents on a day of mostly quiet trading, helped by mutual gains in soybean meal and oil. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 16.7 and 27.3 million bushels respectively, neutral-to-bullish amounts which have total shipments up 17% in 2016-17 -- still above USDA's estimate for an 11% gain in exports. New-crop sales totaled 33.0 million bushels. A little later, USDA mentioned China bought 6.1 million bushels (165,000 mt) of optional origin soybeans for 2017-18, but of course, that gave traders nothing to cheer about. The western Midwest has seen beneficial rains for soybeans the past seven days which came at a good time to boost soybean yields, but many of Iowa's drier areas continue to be missed. In spite of this year's weather challenges, there is still a good chance for a record soybean harvest this fall. That possibility is keeping November soybean prices near this year's low of $9.07 while active demand is helping keep prices above the low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.62 Wednesday, priced 63 cents below the November contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Wheat

December Chicago wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents and December K.C. wheat was down 5 cents, both extending their six-week downtrends to new contract lows while potential buyers stay away. It seems odd for the market to have this bearish of a response in a year when U.S. production is down 25% or more, but we do know that in the case of K.C. wheat, noncommercials were caught with record net long positions near the top of the market and they have been slow to liquidate since. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 23.3 and 20.1 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bullish combination which has total shipments up 17% from a year ago after ten weeks in the new 2017-18 season. With winter wheat contracts falling to new contract lows and potential buyers appearing content to watch from the sidelines, prices continue to struggle to find support. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.91 Wednesday, priced 28 cents below the September contract and at its lowest price in nearly two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.52, at its lowest price in over two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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