DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 6.1 million bushels (165,000 mt) of optional origin soybeans for 2017-18. Corn and soybeans were starting a little higher with drier weather expected in the central and western Midwest the next few days, before more rain chances return early next week.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was up 1/4 cent early Thursday, with a line of scattered showers from Arkansas to the Great Lakes and drier weather in the central and western Corn Belt. A similar outlook is expected the next few days before more rain chances appear for the central Midwest early next week. This week's rains have offered some late benefit to corn in the western Midwest, but the broad coverage forecast earlier this week is falling short. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 2.5 and 27.4 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination which puts total shipments up 23% from a year ago with three weeks left in the 2016-17 season. New-crop corn sales totaled 26.4 million bushels. With a smaller, yet significant harvest on the way, December corn prices remain under bearish pressure, near their lowest prices in 2017. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.14 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the September contract and at a new 2017 low. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.39 after Wednesday's FOMC minutes showed mixed views on inflation and the future direction of Fed actions.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced China bought 6.1 million bushels (165,000 mt) of optional origin soybeans for 2017-18. November soybeans were up 6 cents early, making an early attempt to leave a low higher than the $9.07 left in June. It is too early to tell if Wednesday's low will hold and so far, Thursday's buying appears to be coming from noncommercials in both, soybeans and meal. Conditions for soybean crops remain the most adverse in five years, but are not disastrous. It is also fair to say that this week's rains in the western Midwest came at a good time for soybean crops and likely gave a much-needed boost to yield potential in these drier areas. Iowa is one state that could still use more rain and has a chance early next week. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 16.7 and 27.3 million bushels respectively, neutral-to-bullish amounts which have total shipments up 17% in 2016-17 -- still above USDA's estimate for an 11% gain in exports. New-crop sales totaled 33.0 million bushels. November soybeans remain under bearish pressure, but even with a record soybean harvest still possible this fall, prices are holding above the June low of $9.07, thanks to active demand. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.62 Wednesday, priced 63 cents below the November contract and near its lowest price in three months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was down 1 1/2 cents early after a quiet overnight session, staying near contract lows for the September contract and at the lowest spot prices in over three months. In spite of this year's lower wheat production in the U.S., the demand side of the market remains firmly bearish with futures spreads in both, Chicago and K.C. offering more than the cost of carry for producers to hold wheat until a more distant month. Meanwhile, the northwestern U.S. states remain mostly dry as this year's battered spring wheat harvest continues. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 23.3 and 20.1 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bullish combination which has total shipments up 17% from a year ago after ten weeks in the new 2017-18 season. Winter wheat prices continue to drift lower, looking for support after a summer of lower production. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.91 Wednesday, priced 28 cents below the September contract and at its lowest price in nearly two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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