DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 7 1/2 cents in the September contract and down 7 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 11 cents in the September contract and down 14 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 10 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and down 11 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 at 93.75. December gold is down $12.40 at $1,278.00 while September silver is down 47 cents and September copper is down $0.0225. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 8 at 21,986. September crude oil is down $0.03 at $47.56. September heating oil is down $0.0057 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0039 and September natural gas is up $0.012.

Corn:

December corn closed down 7 3/4 cents at a new low for 2017, still under pressure from expectations for rain in the latest seven-day forecast. Western Iowa saw rain early Tuesday, and heavier amounts are supposed to be on the way for much of the Corn Belt, especially over the next three days. Late Monday, USDA said 61% of corn had reached the dough stage and 16% was dented, close to its usual pace of development. USDA increased its good-to-excellent rating for corn from 60% to 62%, but most crops in the central and western Midwest could still benefit from more moisture. Going by DTN's Corn Condition Index score of 148, this is now the eighth lowest rated corn crop since 2000. While there have been problems, the 2017 yield looks headed for a discounted, but not disastrous, result. With old-crop ending corn stocks estimated at 2.37 billion bushels, December corn prices remain under bearish pressure heading toward the fall harvest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.23 Monday, priced 39 cents below the September contract and near the low end of its sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 with more talk about the possibility of another U.S. rate hike.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 14 cents Tuesday, pressured by rain in this week's forecast, which happens to be showing up at a good time to help this year's soybean crops. USDA said late Monday that 79% of soybeans are setting pods, just as moderate-to-heavy rains are expected in the western and central Midwest the next few days. USDA reduced its good-to-excellent rating for soybeans from 60% to 59%, which kept DTN's Soybean Condition Index at its lowest level in five years. On the demand side, USDA announced early Tuesday that 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China and another 4.85 million bushels (132,000 mt) were sold to unknown destinations, both for 2017-18. Later, the National Oilseed Processors Association said 144.7 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in July, more than expected and 1 million bushels more than a year ago. Soybean oil stocks at the end of July totaled 1.56 billion pounds, down 11% from a year ago. However, traders weren't paying attention to demand Tuesday as prices headed toward their low for the year. The short-term trend in November soybeans remains down, in line with soybeans' seasonal tendencies. So far, November soybean prices are holding above the 2017 low of $9.07. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.73 Monday, priced 65 cents below the November contract and near its lowest price in over a month.

Wheat

September Chicago wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents, still struggling to find support after six weeks of falling prices while eking out a new low for 2017. Late Monday, USDA said 97% of winter wheat and 40% of spring wheat crops were harvested, near their usual paces. USDA's good-to-excellent crop rating for spring wheat was raised from 32% to 33%, but at this late date, the rating carries little weight. The steady erosion of prices since early July has brought noncommercials back to the short side of the market, and commercials were lightly net long in Friday's Commitments of Traders report, but it is difficult to see any obvious support for prices just yet. The seven-day forecast still expects rain in the southwestern Plains, which should be beneficial for fall planting. With winter wheat prices still trending lower, potential buyers appear in no hurry to respond to the lowest futures prices this year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.11 Monday, priced 30 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.69, at its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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