DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

USDA's long-awaited August estimates are almost here and grains are mostly quiet in anticipation with November soybeans sneaking up 4 3/4 cents early. The next seven days are expected to stay mostly dry across the central Midwest.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was up a quarter-cent early Thursday, trading quietly in the hours before USDA releases its first field-based yield estimate in its WASDE report at 11 a.m. CDT. Given this year's wet spring and early summer in the eastern Midwest, drought in the northwestern Plains, and dry conditions in the western and central Plains, expectations are high for a lower yield estimated and Dow Jones' survey is expecting to see 166.0 bushels an acre. If true, that should help December corn to stay supported in its sideways range, but surprises are possible which makes Thursday's report potentially volatile. Thursday's weather map is mostly dry with light scattered showers around the Corn Belt. Heavier rain amounts are expected around Oklahoma the next few days. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor noted increased rain deficits in Iowa and the addition of severe drought conditions in northwestern Iowa. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 2.0 and 38.3 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination for the week. With many watching Thursday's USDA estimates, December corn continues to trade within a sideways range and is holding above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Wednesday, priced 40 cents below the September contract and staying within its sideways range in 2017.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 4 3/4 cents early Thursday with added support from light buying in both soybean meal and oil. Soybean prices dropped in the latter half of July, pressured by milder temperatures and some beneficial rain. Not all areas have had enough rain however, which makes Thursday's USDA estimates all the more important and potentially volatile for Thursday's soybean prices. Dow Jones' survey expects a soybean yield estimate of 47.4 bushels an acre, but this crop is still developing and could swing either way. With USDA expecting 4.23 billion bushels of U.S. soybean demand in 2017-18, it doesn't take much change to impact ending stocks. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales of soybeans hit a marketing year low of 1.7 million bushels, but shipments totaled 22.5 million bushels -- still a bullish pace for 2016-17. So far, November soybeans remain in an uptrend with support at $9.55 1/2, the low of the past five weeks. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.07 Wednesday, priced 67 cents below the November contract and holding sideways, above $8.80. Among August contracts, there were 39 deliveries of soybeans, 147 deliveries of meal, and 127 deliveries of soybean oil early Thursday.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was up a penny early, staying within this week's narrow range and keeping a low profile ahead of Thursday's WASDE report. Given this year's drought in the northwestern Plains, USDA has another chance to lower its estimate of other spring wheat production and Dow Jones expects to see a 30 million bushel reduction from the July estimate of 423 million bushels. The more important number for wheat prices of course will be USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks which Dow Jones' expects at 256.7 mmt, down from July's estimate of 260.6 mmt, but still high by historic standards. USDA said early Thursday that last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 17.1 and 20.9 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination for the week. September Minneapolis wheat found support recently at $7.07 1/2, its five-week low while winter wheat prices appear to be finding support near their lowest prices in nearly two months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.30 Wednesday, priced 30 cents below the September contract and still above its previous breakout at $4.18.

ToddHultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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