DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Soybeans were starting with double-digit losses at the morning break while a line of showers work slowly eastward across Iowa and Minnesota. Corn and wheat are also lower after USDA reported decent weekly shipments, but new marketing year low sales for both.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was down 3 1/2 cents early Thursday with rain working eastward across Iowa and Minnesota, headed toward Great Lake states and Ontario on Friday. Other areas are drier Thursday until the next significant rains develop across the southern Plains this weekend. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 1.4 and 42.9 million bushels respectively -- a new marketing year low for sales, but also putting total shipments up 27% from a year ago. With South America now winning the export battle, it could be several months before significant corn sales return. December corn continues to trade in a sideways range, but is challenging its low as timely rains come through. Prices also show signs of succumbing to bearish seasonal pressure. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.24 Wednesday, priced 41 cents below the September contract and at the low end of its sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.09 after the U.S. Labor Department said jobless claims were down to 240,000 last week, less than expected.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 14 cents early Thursday with beneficial rains moving across Iowa and Minnesota, good timing for soybeans setting pods. The rest of the Midwest is expected to be mostly dry with temperatures staying moderate, even cool in the mornings. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 8.6 and 26.2 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to keep total shipments up 19% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Because U.S. soybean prices are staying competitive with Brazil, it is likely that USDA will eventually have to reduce its estimate of ending soybean stocks for 2016-17. While some soybeans are receiving beneficial rains, November soybeans continue to fall back from their highs of early July. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.07 Wednesday, priced 70 cents below the November contract and down from its highest prices in four months. Among August contracts, there were 47 deliveries of soybeans, 181 deliveries of meal, and 758 deliveries of soybean oil early Thursday.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was down 4 3/4 cents and September K.C. wheat was down 5 1/4 cents, both still having trouble finding support with moderate to heavy rains in the seven day forecast for the southern Plains. The rains are expected to start on Saturday and don't help this year's supplies, but do provide benefit for fall planting. Meanwhile, not much rain is expected in the northern Plains following North Dakota's showers on Wednesday. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 5.3 and 21.4 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination for the week that has total shipments up 22% early in 2017-18, well above USDA's estimate for an 8% decline. Winter wheat prices have fallen back to their old trading range in May where prices were trading before this year's drought concerns emerged. With U.S. wheat production down in 2017, they should be able to find a higher level of support than what we saw in late 2016. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.29 Wednesday, priced 32 cents below the September contract and down sharply from its highest price in two years.

ToddHultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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