DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 1/2 cents in the September contract and down 3 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents in the August contract and up 5 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 6 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and down 9 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.35 at 92.76. December gold is down $1.60 at $1,273.70 while September silver is up 10 cents and September copper is up $0.0170. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 92 at 21,922. September crude oil is up $0.08 at $49.79. September heating oil is up $0.0144 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0234 and September natural gas is down $0.153.

Corn:

December corn closed down 3 1/4 cents Monday, starting the week under pressure with rain in the new forecast. Monday's seven-day forecast expects heavy amounts around the Texas Panhandle and across the northern Midwest with more moderate amounts in the western Plains, including the eastern Dakotas. The southern Midwest is expected to be drier this week, but temperatures will stay mild across the Corn Belt -- easier on crops. Monday morning, USDA said 38.9 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, bullish enough to have total inspections up 31% in 2016-17 with four weeks left in the season. Earlier Monday, USDA said 5.9 million bushels (150,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Columbia for 2017-18. So far, December corn continues to resist its bearish seasonal tendency and is holding sideways, above support at $3.75, with plenty to learn yet about this year's crops. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in corn, holding 172,065 net longs as of July 25. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Friday, priced 43 cents below the September contract and maintaining its sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.35 as Bloomberg.com noted "growing optimism in the strength of the global economy..."

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 5 3/4 cents Monday, also pressured by rain in the seven-day forecast, but bullish enough to hold above its lows of the past three weeks. Expected rain amounts in the western Plains will be helpful to crops, if they show up, and so will this week's moderate temperatures across the Midwest. Monday afternoon's soybean crop ratings from USDA may show improvement in Nebraska and Illinois, but overall concerns are still running high in 2017. Monday morning, USDA said 17.5 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, enough to have total inspections up 16% in 2016-17 from a year ago, threatening a lower ending stocks estimate ahead. It is also supportive for U.S. export business that FOB soybean prices are roughly 13 cents cheaper at the U.S. Gulf than at Brazil's ports. With crops at risk and demand doing well, the trend in November soybeans remains up. Noncommercials however, are largely uncommitted, holding 58,785 net longs in soybeans as of July 25. Early Monday, August contracts were assigned 715 deliveries of soybeans, 181 deliveries of meal, and 558 deliveries of soybean oil. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.40 Friday, priced 61 cents below the August contract and down from its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents, pressured by moderate to heavy rains expected this week in the southwestern Plains and even reaching as far north as the eastern Dakotas. The winter wheat harvest is in its final stages and has moved off to the northwestern U.S., but this week's rains could be helpful to planting conditions this fall. While the U.S. works through this year's wheat production problems, export demand has been doing better than expected early in 2017-18. Monday morning, USDA said 21.3 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting the new total up 15% from a year ago and well above USDA's estimate for an 8% decline in 2017-18. With wheat supplies still comfortably plentiful around the world, winter wheat prices have been falling back, looking for a new level of higher support. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in Chicago wheat as of July 25, holding 20,766 net longs. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.50 Friday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.15, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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