DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 4 cents in the September contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 7 1/4 cents in the August contract and up 7 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 3 3/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 2 3/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 12 1/2 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.28 at 93.61. August gold is up $2.40 at $1,254.50 while September silver is down 1 cent and September copper is up $0.0200. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 89 at 21,703. September crude oil is up $0.81 at $48.70. September heating oil is up $0.0259 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0194 and September natural gas is down $0.027.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 3/4 cents Wednesday, finding a little support after Tuesday's sell-off put prices closer to $3.75, the line of support for the past nine months. With CFTC data showing noncommercials holding 177,147 net longs as of last Tuesday, some of that was probably covered as prices fell the past few days, but the more interesting action will be to see if corn's lower prices eventually bring commercials back to the long side. Wednesday's rains gave timely drinks of water to parts of the western and central Corn Belt and are expected to head to the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. After that, however, the forecast is mostly dry with milder summer temperatures across the Midwest next week. USDA's WASDE report on Aug. 10 will provide the first field-based yield estimate for the 2017 corn crop and could pack a surprise for prices, given this year's wide range of weather conditions. So far, December corn continues to trade sideways with important support holding at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.24 Tuesday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and back near its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.28 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and noted that inflation has declined on a 12-month basis.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents, trying to make a stand of support near its lowest prices of the past three weeks. In addition to this year's poor crop ratings, soybeans have a couple of other advantages helping prices hold up better than we see in corn. First, noncommercials only had a light net-long position of 40,831 soybean contracts last Tuesday, so there is no immediate pressure for traders to sell. Second, FOB soybean prices are 14 cents cheaper at the U.S. Gulf than at Brazil's ports so U.S. soybean exports should continue to keep an active pace. That is a bit surprising given Brazil's record harvest earlier this year, but shows again just how strong world demand has been for soybeans. Wednesday's rain is helpful to crops in the western and central Midwest, but will not cure all of this year's problems. For now, the trend in November soybeans remains up with this year's U.S. soybean crop still at risk. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.19 Tuesday, priced 62 cents below the August contract and down from its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat ended up 3 3/4 cents, putting an end to three consecutive days of selling as prices showed signs of finding support near their lowest level in four weeks. Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour crossed southern North Dakota and finished with a yield estimate just shy of 38 bushels an acre, down from 43.1 bpa a year ago. Fields were described as average on the eastern side, but devastated by drought on the western side, as many expected. Day two expects to see more of the same as the tour crosses northern North Dakota. Temperatures in the northwestern Plains have eased somewhat, but there are still no significant rains expected through next week. In spite of this year's lower U.S. wheat production, winter wheat prices have been falling since July 5 and should now be getting close to support in the old, sideways range where prices were trading before June's excitement began. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.43 Tuesday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down sharply from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.08, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.