DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 110 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is narrowly mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $4.00.

CORN

Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with cooler forecasts and near term rain offsetting the decline in weekly crop conditions. Corn pollination will continue with cooler temperatures after the next couple of days but rain coverage remains less than ideal for the much western belt with signs of improved coverage for Nebraska and Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday. There are also spots of excessive moisture in areas of the east. The weekly crop progress report showed corn ratings down 2 percentage points to 62% good to excellent, and 12% poor to very poor. Progress was listed at 67% silking, 9% behind last year, and 2 percentage points behind average, and 8% in the dough, 4 percentage points behind last year, and 5 percentage points behind average. Ethanol margins are improved this morning with the cheaper corn and firmer energy complex. On the December chart support is at the July low of $3.81 3/4 with resistance at the 100-day at $3.90 which we closed just above yesterday then the 20-day at $3.94.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday, well off the overnight highs after the initial snap higher. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil 15 to 25 higher. Cooler temperatures with some moisture was viewed as less threatening for the coming weeks. We still have six important weeks of weather ahead for beans. The western belt will likely see the most stress going into August with rains limited after tomorrow. The weekly crop progress report had conditions down 4 percentage points to 57% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor with 69% blooming, 5 percentage points behind last year, and 2 percentage points ahead of average, with 29% setting pods, 4 percentage points behind last year, and 2 percentage points ahead of average. On the November chart support is at the 20-day at 9.94 with resistance at the 10-day at 10.13.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 8 to 25 cents lower at midday with Minneapolis trade leading the way lower again as the ongoing correction continues. The spread trade remains active with Minneapolis still $2.50 over Chicago. The September spread was trading around $1 over in early May, then traded to nearly $3 over on July 5. Most world export business remains focused on the Black Sea area as harvest begins to progress there, with the dollar around the yearly lows there is hope for export U.S. improvement but world supplies remain ample. The Spring wheat tour is in the better areas of the eastern growing area today. The weekly crop progress had winter wheat 84% harvested 4 percentage points ahead of average, spring wheat down 1 percentage point at 33% good to excellent, and 41% poor to very poor with 96% headed, 2 percentage points ahead of average. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.94. Resistance is at the 50-day at $5.06 then the 10-day at $5.31.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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