DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the September contract and up 2 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 4 1/2 cents in the August contract and up 4 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 3 3/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 13 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.51 at 94.39. August gold is up $8.30 at $1,242.00 while September silver is up 17 cents and September copper is up $0.0040. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 64 at 21,565. August crude oil is up $0.23 at $46.25. August heating oil is up $0.0054 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0197 and August natural gas is up $0.064.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents Tuesday, a disappointing finish for bulls who saw prices trade 14 cents higher earlier in the morning. In addition to Monday's lower crop rating for corn, temperatures will stay hot this week in the central Plains while moderate to heavy rains are mostly limited, the bulk expected from southern Minnesota to Ohio. Late Monday, USDA said 40% of corn was silking, down from the five-year average of 47%. USDA also said 64% of corn was rated good or excellent, taking DTN's Corn Condition Index down 3 points to 152, which is still the lowest in five years. It is no surprise the highest poor-to-very poor ratings are in the Dakotas, but the list also included 18% for Indiana and 12% for Nebraska. As we learned earlier this summer, extended forecasts can be tricky, but Monday's new 8- to 14-day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center expects below-normal precipitation over the Corn Belt. With weather risk still in play, December corn prices continue to chop sideways in a wide range and are holding above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Monday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and trading in a wide sideways range. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.51 with plans for tax reform interrupted after Republicans backed away from the latest attempt to reform health care.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents, benefiting from USDA's slight drop in crop ratings and ongoing concerns about this week's hot and largely dry weather. The heaviest rain amounts in this week's forecast are expected from southern Minnesota to Michigan and Ohio and are only expected to catch the northern tier of Iowa. Late Monday, USDA said 52% of soybeans were blooming and 16% were setting pods, a little above their five-year averages. USDA also said 61% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, resulting in a 1-point drop in DTN's Soybean Condition Index to 146, which is still the lowest in five years. As with corn, high poor-to-very poor (pvp) ratings were no surprise in the Dakotas, but five other states also had double-digit pvp ratings, including Illinois and Iowa. This week's hotter temperatures continue to stress crops where the rain has been sparse. With the 2017 soybean crop still at risk of losing yield, trading in November soybeans remains volatile and the trend is up. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.20 Monday, priced 65 cents below the August contract and down from its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat started out trading much higher Tuesday, but ended down 2 1/4 cents on the day as traders continue to wrestle with the contradiction of hot and dry weather here in the U.S. and southern Canadian Prairies versus the rest of the world, which is generally doing well. Spring wheat of course, continues to be in the most bullish situation and September Minneapolis wheat ended the day up 13 1/4 cents. Late Monday, USDA said 75% of winter wheat was harvested with activity starting to pick up in the northwestern U.S. USDA also said 91% of spring wheat was headed, but extremely distressed with only 34% of the crop rated good or excellent. DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index of 37 continues to be the lowest score since 1988. Eastern North Dakota received rain early Tuesday, but the forecast remains mostly dry for the northwestern Plains and the clock is ticking on this year's spring wheat crop. Technically, the trends remain up for all three wheats, but winter wheat prices are well off their highs of two weeks ago. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.75 Monday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.40, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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