DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 4 cents in the August contract and down 4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 4 3/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 7 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 9 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.02 at 94.91. August gold is up $6.70 at $1,234.20 while September silver is up 18 cents and September copper is up $0.0360. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1 at 21,639. August crude oil is down $0.46 at $46.08. August heating oil is down $0.0091 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0016 and August natural gas is up $0.031.

Corn:

December corn ended down 1 1/2 cents, basically holding steady after last week's roller coaster sell-off. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials loaded for bull in corn at the top of the market, taking on 175,745 net longs as of July 11, just before USDA increased ending stocks estimates and the extended forecast turned more bearish. Monday's new seven-day forecast targets heavy rain around southern Minnesota, which is expected to reach eastward to Ohio where rain is less welcome. The eastern Dakotas may get some of the moisture, but the rest of the Midwest will be mostly dry with the extended forecast staying dry for the western Midwest. Temperatures continue to follow the same script with hotter readings expected in the western Midwest this week. On the demand side, USDA said 43.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, bullish enough to keep the 2016-17 total up 35% from a year ago with six weeks remaining in the season. With crop conditions still uncertain in 2017, December corn continues to hold a sideways trading range above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Friday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and staying supported above June's low of $3.19. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.02, trading near its lowest spot price in ten months as rate hike arguments continue to be challenged by low inflation in the U.S.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 4 cents Monday, a quieter day of trading that saw some bearish influence out of June's soybean crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). According to Dow Jones, NOPA said 138.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in June, less than was expected and down 5% from a year ago. Weather of course, remains the main concern in July and, so far, it is difficult to tell how this year will turn out. Iowa and Minnesota are this year's better crop areas and they have chances for rain this week, although the amounts that reach into Iowa are questionable. The western Midwest remains hot and mostly dry and will likely show steady to lower crop ratings in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials switched from bearish to lightly bullish as of July 11, holding 18,000 net longs in soybeans. A bullish surprise showed up in commercial positions as they remained net long with 18,153 contracts -- even with November prices well over $10.00. USDA reported soybean inspections at a low 10.5 million bushels for last week, but the 2016-17 total is up 17% from a year ago. With weather risk still at play in 2017, November soybeans remain in an uptrend, contrary to their usual seasonal tendency. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.24 Friday, priced 65 cents below the August contract and down from its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed down 4 3/4 cents Monday, continuing to fall back from the high of two weeks ago. That doesn't mean crop conditions are getting any better in the northwestern Plains as they certainly are not. The latest pullback in winter wheat prices has more to do with prices losing their bullish enthusiasm over this year's drought while other major wheat regions outside of North America are doing generally well. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials net long 27,438 contracts in Chicago wheat as of July 11, testing the long side of wheat for a second week. Noncommercials in K.C. wheat were net long 93,842 contracts, the largest bullish total on record and looking like one more ill-timed plunge for noncommercials this year. Last week's wheat inspections totaled 21.3 million bushels, a bullish showing that has total inspections up 26% early in 2017-18 from a year ago. September Minneapolis wheat ended up 9 1/4 cents and is still holding its uptrend while short-term momentum continues to pull winter wheat prices lower, against their recent uptrends. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.78 Friday, priced 33 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.46, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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