Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A broad difference in conditions across the Midwest, and more exhausting drought in the Northern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MIDWEST VARIABILITY

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for ongoing variability in the Midwest. Limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures over central and southern portions of the western Midwest this week will increase stress to corn and soybeans, especially pollinating corn. Some crop losses can be expected. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota should experience beneficial rainfall and more moderate temperatures. Mostly favorable weather for developing corn and soybeans in the eastern Midwest this week with less rainfall over central and southern areas and no severe heat.

SCATTERED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAINFALL

Portions of the Southern Plains had thundershowers Sunday into early Monday, with locally heavy amounts. The region is expected to remain mostly dry or with only isolated thundershower activity during the next five days. After that, we may see some scattered shower activity developing.

CONTINUED NORTHERN PLAINS HEAT AND DROUGHT

In the Northern Plains, episodes of heat and limited rainfall are expected to continue with significant crop stress. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being affected with significant losses likely. The most affected areas will likely be Montana, western and central North Dakota and South Dakota.

CENTRAL PRAIRIES DRYNESS

Central sectors of the Canadian Prairies remain in drought. Dryness is of much concern in an area centered on southwest and central Saskatchewan. Showers during the next five days in the Canadian Prairies region are expected to occur mostly north and east of this area. Cooler temperatures will, for a time, ease stress to crops in the area. However, hotter weather may return at times during the six- to 10-day period. Canola and wheat are being affected, especially in Saskatchewan.

LIGHT UKRAINE SHOWERS

Ukraine and southern Russia had only a few light showers during the weekend. Somewhat hotter in the south Russia area but not hot elsewhere in the region. The region does not look very active this week, but a few showers or thundershowers may occur at times. It also does not look very hot but may features above-normal temperatures for brief periods.

SCATTERED NORTHEAST CHINA SHOWERS

Northeastern China continues to be in need of rainfall to support favorable reproduction and filling of crops in the region. The weekend weather featured above-normal temperatures and only isolated thundershower activity. The weather during the next week days will continue to trend toward below-normal rainfall and above- to near-normal temperatures.

WEEKEND WESTERN INDIA RAIN

As expected, heavy rains occurred as expected in key growing areas of Gujarat in western India. This will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture in cotton and groundnut areas but also likely means severe flooding. Rains in west Madhya Pradesh and in Maharashtra during the weekend with more rain likely later this week. This is very favorable for soybeans, cotton and sugarcane crops grown in these locations.

LIMITED AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Dryness is becoming of some concern through key growing areas of Australia. Showers have occurred during the past week in wheat areas of Western Australia, southeast South Australia, Victoria and southeast Queensland. Important wheat areas of New South Wales remained dry during this period. More rain is needed in all areas, even the locations that recently had showers, after a very dry June.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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