DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 15 3/4 cents in the September contract and down 15 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 45 1/4 cents in the August contract and down 46 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 25 1/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 28 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City and down 33 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.03 at 95.54. August gold is down $1.00 at $1,218.10 while September silver is down 17 cents and September copper is down $0.0165. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25 at 21,557. August crude oil is up $0.58 at $46.07. August heating oil is up $0.0182 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0064 and August natural gas is down $0.025.

Corn:

December corn closed down 15 3/4 cents Thursday, hit by rains that moved across the central Midwest the past 24 hours and ushered in more moderate temperatures. At the same time, the extended forecast that was expecting hot and dry weather over much of the Corn Belt early Tuesday has backed off and is not looking so threatening on Thursday. The seven-day forecast expects rain in the northern and eastern Midwest with moderate temperatures in the Eastern Corn Belt while the western side stays hotter and drier. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 6.3 million bushels and 34.7 mb respectively, a neutral combination for the week. Total corn shipments are up 32% from a year ago, but new sales have fallen off as South America's newly harvested corn is now available and offering a cheaper price. December corn has fallen back into its sideways, choppy pattern with important support at $3.75. 284 July corn contracts were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.41 Wednesday, priced 45 cents below the September contract and near its highest price in a year. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.03, staying in its downtrend after Fed Chairman Yellen repeated the Fed's commitment to gradual rate hikes in Wednesday's Congressional testimony.

Soybeans:

November soybeans dropped 46 1/2 cents Thursday, hurt by the same bearish change in weather outlook described above. Thursday's selling is somewhat understandable as noncommercials responded to a bearish change in the forecast, but challenges still remain for soybeans in 2017 with the western Midwest and western Plains still expecting hotter temperatures and generally drier weather. Traders were in no mood for argument, but it is also worth noting that recent rains resulted in flooding in northern Missouri, Wisconsin, northern Illinois and Ohio. Ironically, Thursday's big drop in prices happened as the Iowa Soybean Association reported on Twitter that a Chinese delegation was committing to a 460 million bushel purchase at a ceremony in Des Moines. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 8.4 mb and 15.0 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination that has total soybean shipments up 20% in 2016-17. December soybean meal is down $18.20 after USDA reported export sales of meal hit a new low last week for 2016-17. It may sound odd to say that the trend remains up in soybeans, but momentum has turned lower, more in line with soybeans' seasonal tendency after the first week of July. Among July contracts, 88 soybeans, 52 soybean meal and 43 soybean oil were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.54 Wednesday, priced 67 cents below the August contract and near its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat fell 25 1/4 cents Thursday, also caught up in the wave of selling related to a more bearish forecast for row crops. As far as wheat goes, Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show drought expansion in the northwestern Plains with only light rain amounts expected in the seven-day forecast. Temperatures in the region will return to the triple-digits on Friday, but traders showed no concern about wheat conditions on Thursday, sending September Minneapolis wheat down 33 1/4 cents. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 13.1 mb and 17.5 mb respectively, bearish amounts for the week, but total wheat shipments are up 30% in 2017-18 from a year ago, well above USDA's estimated pace for an 8% drop in exports. From April to early-July, September Minneapolis wheat gained an impressive 63%, but prices appear to be losing their bullish momentum even though crop conditions remain poor for spring wheat. Among July contracts, 69 Chicago and 11 K.C. wheat were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.04 Wednesday, priced 33 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.75, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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