DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

December corn was down 4 cents, November soybeans were down 10 3/4 cents, and September Chicago wheat was down 3 3/4 cents. Grains were higher Monday evening, but only September Minneapolis wheat was higher at the morning break as traders look hesitant to extend Monday's highs, even in the face of declining crop conditions. Tuesday morning's weather map shows light scattered showers in the northwestern Plains and across the central Midwest.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was down 4 cents early Tuesday, falling back from Monday's new one-year high with chances for rain in the eastern Corn Belt and in a narrow strip across the central Corn Belt the next few days. Extremely hot temperatures remain prominent in the western Plains. Late Monday, USDA said 19% of corn was silking, less than the 27% average of the past five years. 65% of corn was rated good or excellent, resulting in an eight point drop in DTN's Crop Condition Index to 155, the lowest score in five years. USDA's poor-to-very poor ratings remain high in the Dakotas and Indiana, are also as high as 9% in Illinois and Nebraska. While the updated ratings were bullish, it was also expected and much of traders' focus will continue to be on new forecasts as they come in. Monday's 8 to 14 day forecast remains hot a dry for most of the central U.S. With weather concerns still in play, the trend in December corn remains up. 526 July corn contracts were delivered early Tuesday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.57 Monday, priced 45 cents below the September contract and at its highest price in a year. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is quiet, up 0.05 while most other commodities are trading lower.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were higher Monday evening, but were down 10 3/4 cents at the morning break with light scattered showers in the northwestern Plains and locally heavy rains in southeastern Iowa and western Indiana. Late Monday, USDA said 34% of soybeans were blooming and 7% were setting pods, in line with their usual paces. 62% of soybeans were rated good or excellent, resulting in a seven-point decline in DTN's Soybean Condition Index to 147. The index is the lowest in five years and the overall forecast continues to look generally stressful. As with corn, the worst crop ratings were found in the dry Dakotas, but poor-to-very poor ratings are also in double digits in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois -- states that have been protected from the hotter and drier conditions out west. With the best chances for rain still favoring the eastern Midwest the next few days, trading is volatile, but the trend in November soybeans remains up. Among July contracts, 180 soybeans, 181 soybean meal and 43 soybean oil were delivered early Tuesday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.58 Monday, priced 66 cents below the August contract and at its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was down 3 3/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 5 cents after USDA dropped its good-to-excellent rating again on spring wheat, now down to 35%. That led to a 21-point drop in DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index to 44, still the lowest since 1988 as drought conditions continue to grow worse in the northwestern Plains. USDA also said 67% of winter wheat was harvested with Illinois and Kansas at 95% and 93% respectively. Winter wheat harvest is just getting underway in the troubled northwestern Plains. Tuesday morning's weather map shows light scattered showers in the Dakotas, but as mentioned above, all eyes are on forecasts and so far, the seven-day forecast remains hot and dry for the northwestern Plains. All three wheats remain in uptrends, but it is spring wheat that continues to have the most bullish fundamental argument. One contract of July K.C. wheat was delivered early Tuesday and open interest is dangerously low for all three July wheat contracts. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.17 Monday, priced 33 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in nearly two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.