DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

December corn was up 3 cents, November soybeans were up 6 cents, and September K.C. wheat was up 10 1/4 cents. Corn and soybeans are moderately higher early Thursday, willing to follow the lead of spring wheat as drought in the northwestern Plains remains a serious concern with hotter temperatures expected in the western Plains next week.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was up 3 cents early Thursday with rain in northern Kansas and northern Missouri which is expected to cover parts of the southern Midwest and southeastern U.S. the next few days. The heaviest amounts in the seven-day forecast are targeted around northern Missouri and southern Iowa, but still do not reach up to the northwestern Plains where Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed worsening conditions and expanding areas of abnormally dry conditions into Montana, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 12.4 and 40.2 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination which has total shipments up 36% in 2016-17 from a year ago. With USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Friday morning, December corn remains in a downtrend, but all is not well for crop conditions across the Corn Belt. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Wednesday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in twelve weeks. In outside markets, August gold is down $6.80 and August crude oil is up 48 cents while the September U.S. dollar index is quiet, trading down 0.05.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 6 cents early Thursday, not willing to follow through on last week's new ten-month low before USDA releases its acreage and grain stocks estimates on Friday morning. DTN's seven-day forecast expects some fairly heavy rain amounts around the central Midwest, but the northwestern Plains will stay mostly dry. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 11.5 and 12.6 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to have total soybean sales already exceed USDA's export estimate by 131 million bushels in 2016-17. Friday's USDA reports will have a lot to say about where prices go the next few weeks and the bearish concern is that soybean plantings may go higher than the 90 million that analysts expect. For now, trading is likely to stay cautious while November soybeans remain in a downtrend. It was interesting to see Statistics Canada say that soybean acres will total 7.3 million in 2017, up 33% from a year ago. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.52 Wednesday, priced 62 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

September K.C. wheat was up 10 1/4 cents at the morning break with ongoing bullish influence coming from September Minneapolis wheat, trading up 35 1/2 cents early Thursday. DTN's seven-day forecast continues to expect almost no rain in the northwestern Plains where Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed worsening conditions and expanded areas of abnormally dry conditions. Temperatures are also expected to turn hotter in the western Plains in the week ahead. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 18.1 and 27.6 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination that has total wheat shipments up 38% in the new season from a year ago. Friday's USDA reports are not likely to hold much surprise for wheat prices and may show a larger-than-expected carry to start the new 2017-18 season. Traders however, are understandably more concerned about the prospects for this year's wheat production and those concerns are currently supporting uptrends in all three wheats. Thursday morning, Statistics Canada said spring wheat acres are up 2.5% in 2017 from a year ago, but durum acres are down 16%. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.40 Wednesday, priced 18 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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