DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 2 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 9 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, down 11 1/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 2 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.08 at 97.02. August gold is down $10.60 at $1,245.60 while July silver is down 7 cents and July copper is down $0.0005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45 at 21,439. August crude oil is up $.32 at $43.33. August heating oil is up $0.0033 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0021 and August natural gas is up $0.094.

Corn:

December corn closed up 1 3/4 cents Monday, ending last week's five-day selling streak, but not by much. After Friday's new 6-month low and another seven-day forecast promised rain over most of the Midwest, traders are finding it difficult to stay long corn and have been letting go of their long trades. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials reducing net longs from 85,258 to 41,900 as of June 20 as prices tumbled lower. Friday's Cattle on Feed report was slightly friendly for corn with USDA counting 11.1 million head on June 1, up 2.7% from a year ago and more than expected. USDA said 38.0 million bushels of corn were inspected last week, a lower total that is bullish enough to keep total corn inspections up 41% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Friday's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports will certainly be interesting and may hold a surprise for corn prices. So far, December corn is back in a downtrend as forecasts seem to be holding more sway than this year's crop concerns. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.19 Friday, priced 38 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in 12 weeks. In outside markets, other commodities were mixed with August cattle limit up and the September U.S. dollar index up 0.08.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 2 3/4 cents Monday, just enough to end five consecutive days of selling, but are still weighed down by bearish concerns, including Friday's Acreage report from USDA. With increased soybean supplies anticipated in 2016-17, it was no surprise that Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials increased net shorts from 45,956 to 50,490 as of June 20. Commercials continue to buffer the selling, staying with 93,845 net longs. Recent forecasts keep expecting rain across the Midwest, which is generally bearish, except for the wetter areas of the eastern Midwest. The big concern this week, however, is that USDA may estimate even more than 89.5 million acres of soybean plantings and add to this year's bearish harvest expectations. If soybeans can get past Friday's reports without a bearish surprise, prices may have a chance to find support, but for now, November soybeans remain in a downtrend. Earlier Monday, USDA announced 4.0 million bushels (110,000 mt) of soybeans were sold to Bangladesh for 2016-17. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.40 Friday, priced 64 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July K.C. wheat closed down 11 1/4 cents and July Chicago wheat was down 9 3/4 cents, both pressured by recent harvest progress and generally favorable wheat conditions outside of North America. July Minneapolis wheat was up 2 1/2 cents, the one bullish trend in grains where prices are still pushing higher while conditions in the northwestern Plains remain seriously dry. Harvest reports from the Kansas Wheat Commission and other sponsors continue to show reports of solid 60 to 70 bushel an acre yields in central Kansas, which appear to be taking the steam out of last week's new three-month highs. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials covered all but 11,083 net shorts in Chicago wheat as of June 20, leaving them with their smallest bearish holding since February. As usual, commercials took advantage of wheat's new highs and reduced net longs from 58,560 to 11,743. Winter wheat prices could still get bullish help from spring wheat problems, but it may be difficult to top last week's highs without added help from other wheat regions and so far, outside problems seem minimal. For now, all three wheats remain in uptrends. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.40 Friday, priced 20 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.03, down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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