DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

December corn was up 1/4 cent, November soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents, and July K.C. wheat was down 1/2 cent. Grains are quietly mixed early Friday with rain falling around the eastern Midwest and Mississippi Delta. Row crop prices are finding it difficult to argue with good weather across the Midwest while the U.S. spring wheat crop continues to suffer drought.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was up a quarter-cent early Friday, getting a little help from outside markets, but not really arguing with this week's lower prices. Friday morning's weather map already has more rain on it than was forecast for the day with the heaviest amounts seen around the eastern Midwest and Mississippi Delta. DTN's forecast for the next 15 days looks nearly ideal for most of the Corn Belt with occasional showers and no extreme heat expected. Fundamentally, it still seems likely that U.S. ending corn stocks will be modestly lower in 2017-18, but this latest stretch of favorable weather is keeping bearish pressure on prices. So far, December corn prices are struggling to hold sideways, above the 2017 low of $3.78 1/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Thursday, priced 38 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in eight weeks. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.19 while softs and metals are mostly higher and energies are mixed.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents at the morning break, getting a small bounce after falling to its lowest close in over nine months on Thursday. As with corn, soybean prices are being pressured by a second week of favorable forecasts that look very good for crop conditions the next two weeks. Soybeans also have added duress from the anticipation of record U.S. soybean plantings in 2017 and USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are due out next Friday, June 30. Unless USDA deals a surprise on Friday, it is very difficult to argue with the anticipation of increased soybean supplies in 2017-18, especially with crop-friendly forecasts across most of the Midwest. Until something comes along to interrupt this bearish dynamic, the trend for November soybeans remains down. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.40 Thursday, priced 64 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July K.C. wheat was down a half-cent early, staying near its highest prices in three months with bullish influence from drought in the northwestern Plains. The winter wheat harvest likely made good progress this week in the southwestern Plains, but may be interrupted this weekend by light to moderate showers. Harvest reports from Kansas continue to show a variety of conditions which combine with this year's lower planting to make a smaller crop likely. The northwestern Plains will see colder morning temperatures this week, but they should stay above freezing. The bigger problem of course is the expansion of drought and there is still not much precipitation in the seven-day forecast. While there is little hope seen for this year's U.S. spring wheat crop, other wheat regions around the world are doing well overall. All three wheats remain in an uptrend, but winter wheat prices are struggling to trade higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.40 Thursday, priced 21 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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