DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 5 cents in the July contract and down 5 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 1/2 cent in the July and down 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents in the July Chicago, down 3 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and up 5 cents in the July Minneapolis.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.37 at 96.93. August gold is up $7.40 at $1,256.80 while July silver is up $0.16 and July copper is up 0.0295. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 6 at 21,404. August crude oil is up $0.17 at $42.91. August heating oil is up $0.0015, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0039 and August natural gas is up $0.033.

For the week:

July corn closed down 26 1/4 cents and December closed down 26 3/4 cents. July soybeans were down 34 1/2 cents while the November was down 39 cents. July Chicago wheat was down 5 1/2 cents, July Kansas City wheat was down 9 1/4 cents, and July Minneapolis wheat was up 18 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed down 5 1/2 cents Friday and was down every day this week, pressured by consistently bearish forecasts that scared potential buyers away from the market and set a new low for 2017. DTN's outlook for the next 15 days expects moderate summer temperatures throughout most of the Midwest with occasional showers just about everywhere, but the northwestern Plains where the moisture is desperately needed. Parts of the eastern Midwest around Indiana have been too wet this year and more moderate to heavy showers added to flooding problems on Friday along the Mississippi Delta and Ohio River Valley. Problematic wet areas may show up in Monday's Crop Progress report, but with no extreme heat in the forecast, it has been difficult to find any buyers for corn or soybeans. December corn's new 2017 low on Friday has turned the trend lower at a critical time when the seasonal tendency has already been pointing down since June 14. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Thursday, priced 38 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in eight weeks. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.39 while most other commodities are higher.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents Friday and were down 39 cents on the week, suffering five consecutive days without any significant buying interest while favorable forecasts for the Midwest dominated all other factors. Friday's rains did create flooding problems along the Mississippi Delta and Ohio River Valley, but traders were in no mood to hear bullish dissent. After Monday's Crop Progress report, most of next week will be spent anticipating USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 30 and the bearish concern is that USDA may estimate more than the 89.5 million soybean acres it cited in March. If soybeans can survive June 30 without a bearish surprise, prices may find better chances for support as commercials have been willing buyers at these lower levels. For now, the trend in soybeans remains down, well ahead of the 10-year seasonal peak on July 5. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.40 Thursday, priced 64 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July Kansas City wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents Friday and was down 9 1/4 cents on the week, split between bullish influence from spring wheat's drought in the northwestern Plains and corn's favorable weather conditions throughout most of the Midwest. The wheat harvest in Kansas should have had a good week of progress and will be mostly dry the next five days before rain is expected to interrupt. Overall, yield reports are roughly even with a year ago in central Kansas, but are lower in western Kansas where snow hit in late April. So far, there have been no dramatic surprises reported. The bigger concern this year is drought in the northwestern U.S. Plains, and for that region, the seven-day forecast is still not offering much chance for rain. With U.S. wheat production expected to be down in 2017, all three wheats remain in uptrends, but only Minneapolis wheat continues to consistently push higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.40 Thursday, priced 21 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.06, down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.