DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 6 cents in the July contract and down 6 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 14 3/4 cents in the July contract and down 14 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, unchanged in the July Kansas City, and up 7 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.11 at 97.32. August gold is up $3.20 at $1,249.00 while July silver is up 14 cents and July copper is down $0.0040. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34 at 21,444. August crude oil is up $.35 at $42.88. August heating oil is up $0.0122 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0269 and August natural gas is down $0.001.

Corn:

December corn closed down 6 cents Thursday with ongoing bearish pressure coming from mild summer temperatures in the ten-day forecast. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed worsening drought conditions in the northwestern Plains and an expanded area of abnormal dryness in the western Plains while the eastern Midwest showed improvement. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 20.8 million and 47.7 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to keep total shipments up 39% in 2016-17 from a year ago with two and a half months remaining in the season. So far, U.S. corn prices are staying close enough to Brazil to keep U.S. export business flowing and USDA should eventually have to increase its export estimate for the current season. With traders seeing a mostly favorable forecast in front of them, the five-week trend in December corn has turned down. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in five weeks. Livestock also closed lower Thursday while August gold was trading up a few dollars and August crude oil was trading up 35 cents.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 14 1/2 cents to its lowest close in over nine months, buckling under pressure from a favorable Midwest forecast and ongoing concerns that USDA will estimate 89.5 million or more planted soybean acres on June 30. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 4.1 million and 10.9 million bushels respectively, low weekly amounts, but considered neutral as total soybean sales are already 120 million bushels above USDA's export estimate and there is still have two and a half months left in the season. The bigger concern of course, is that the U.S. is on track for another record soybean harvest, following Brazil's record crop earlier this year. We have to give credit to commercial demand for soybeans for slowing the decline, but even so, the trend in November soybeans remains down with USDA important reports ahead on June 30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.54 Wednesday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and back near its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July K.C. wheat ended unchanged Thursday, continuing to borrow bullish support from spring wheat's problems while mixed harvest reports continue to roll in from Kansas. Eight days of harvest reports from the Kansas Wheat Commission and other sponsors are starting to fill in a picture of good, 60 to 80 bushel yields in central Kansas that decline as reports move west. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 19.9 million and 26.4 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to put total wheat shipments up 37% in 2017-18 from a year ago. It is still early to draw conclusions in the new season, but it is not difficult to believe that this year's lower U.S. wheat production will help draw down supplies in the U.S. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed worsening drought conditions in the northwestern Plains and expanded abnormally dry areas in the western Plains -- a dry trend for the western Plains that is not expected to see improve the next seven days. Meanwhile, dry weather may be trimming wheat yields in western Europe, but most major wheat regions appear to be doing well and that makes it difficult for winter wheat prices to follow through on this week's new three-month high. So far, the trend for all three wheats remains up. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.43 Wednesday, priced 22 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.05, down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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