DTN Closing Grain Comments

Row Crops Sink Lower; Spring Wheat Higher

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was down 5 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 5 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 10 cents in the July contract and down 9 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 1 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 16 3/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 at 97.44. August gold is down $2.90 at $1,243.80 while July silver is down 7 cents and July copper is down $0.0310. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 27 at 21,502. August crude oil is down $.96 at $43.47. August heating oil is down $0.0149 while August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0247 and August natural gas is up $0.012.

Corn:

December corn closed down 5 1/4 cents Tuesday, pressured by a seven-day forecast of mostly mild temperatures and moderate showers across most of the Corn Belt. Heavier rain amounts are expected in the southeastern U.S. and flooding will be a problem near the Gulf Coast while the northwestern Plains continue to suffer drought. Late Monday, USDA kept corn's good-to-excellent rating at 67% and DTN's Corn Condition Index inched up 2 points to 161. The index is still the lowest in four years with Indiana and South Dakota showing the largest problem areas. Meanwhile, Brazil's corn harvest was 5% complete on Friday, a little behind last year's pace, but on its way. Monday's FOB corn prices put Brazil just 4 cents below the U.S. -- close enough to keep supporting U.S. export business. Technically, December corn is still in an uptrend, but has fallen back into its old range with more favorable weather anticipated. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.37 Monday, priced 38 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in 11 months. Outside markets show nearly all commodities trading lower with August crude oil down 96 cents a barrel.

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Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 9 3/4 cents, weighed down by pleasant summer temperatures and chances for rain across most of the Midwest. Late Monday, USDA said 96% of soybeans were planted and 89% had emerged. Just how many acres is still a big bearish concern and the next clue comes on June 30. USDA also said 67% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, putting DTN's Soybean Condition Index down 1 point on the week to 161. Sixteen percent of soybeans in South Dakota and 11% of soybeans in Indiana rated either poor or very poor, but other large soybean states are doing well overall. Soybean prices continue to find support from the commercial sector, but the current trend remains down with a volatile surprise possible in USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.73 Monday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and is holding above its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

It was clear after USDA's Crop Progress report that July Minneapolis wheat was probably going to see another shot of buying and Tuesday's session did not disappoint, sending the July contract up 16 3/4 cents to its highest spot close in over two years. USDA's good-to-excellent rating for spring wheat fell from 45% to 41% late Monday, taking DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index from 105 to 84, still the lowest value since 1988. South Dakota, Montana, and North Dakota all had heavy poor-to-very poor ratings of 64%, 37%, and 24% respectively. USDA also said 28% of winter wheat was harvested with Kansas 22% and Illinois 65% finished. July Chicago wheat was up 5 1/2 cents and July K.C. wheat was 1 3/4 cents, both trending higher while traders try to learn more from the winter wheat harvest. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.44 Monday, priced 23 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.07, at its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman