DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 8 3/4 cents in the July contract and down 8 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, down 1 cent in the July Kansas City, and down 3 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.40 at 97.26. August gold is down $9.80 at $1,246.70 while July silver is down 16 cents and July copper is down $0.0255. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 115 at 21,499. August crude oil is down $.31 at $44.66. August heating oil is down $0.0047 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0035 and August natural gas is down $0.135.

Corn:

December corn fell 8 3/4 cents Monday, pressured by a seven-day forecast, expecting mild temperatures across most of the Corn Belt and chances for moderate rains in all but the western edge of the region. This week's forecast is a fortunate break for row-crop conditions at a time when the southwestern U.S. will be hit with triple-digit temperatures, sending 90 degree temperatures as far north as South Dakota on Wednesday, but not eastward. Monday morning, USDA said 48.0 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 44% in 2016-17 from a year ago and keeping bullish pressure on USDA to raise its export estimate. It seems that USDA is waiting for the June 1 corn stocks report to be released on June 30 before making any significant demand estimate changes. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials turned bullish in corn as of June 13 with 85,258 contracts net long, a switch from 32,459 net shorts after the previous week's bullish technical breakout. December corn prices still remain in an uptrend, but continue to struggle against bearish weather forecasts. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Friday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in eleven months. Outside markets are quiet early Monday with the June U.S. dollar index up 0.40, getting bullish influence from new highs in the U.S. stock market.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents, pushed back from their highest level in three weeks even though prices have held up well in the face of bearish weather forecasts. Much of soybeans' recent support can be credited to the presence of commercial buying as Friday's CFTC report showed commercial net longs in soybeans at 89,810 on June 13, still finding soybeans' current prices attractive. Noncommercials were less bearish as net-shorts were trimmed back from 66,882 to 45,956, some two weeks ahead of USDA's Acreage report on June 30. Monday morning's inspections report showed total inspections still bullish, up 18% in 2016-17 from a year ago, but the weekly total of 10.1 million bushels was down 8.6 million bushels from the previous week. With record U.S. soybean plantings still looming as a bearish concern in 2017, November soybeans remain in a downtrend, but have shown active demand the past few weeks. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.75 Friday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and holding above its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

All three July contracts of wheat started the day a little higher, but by the close, only Chicago was higher, up 1 3/4 cents. This week will be especially hot in the southwestern U.S. and triple-digit temperatures are expected to arrive in the southwestern Plains on Wednesday. This should not be a problem for wheat that is ready for harvest, but it is also seems likely that the latest rally in prices is reflecting concerns about the quality and amount of winter wheat coming out of the field. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials trimmed back net shorts in Chicago wheat, from 76,590 to 60,516 as of June 13 and no doubt, more shorts were liquidated since June 13. Commercials remained net long 58,560 contracts, well positioned to benefit from the 22-cent rally that has happened since June 13. Yes, there is still plenty of wheat in the world and conditions in regions outside of North America are generally favorable, but for now, all three wheats remain in uptrends. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.42 Friday, priced 24 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in nearly a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.07, also near its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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