DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 1/2 cents in the July contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 3 cents in the July contract and up 5 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 7 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City and up 5 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.56 at 97.48. August gold is down $20.20 at $1,255.70 while July silver is down 40 cents and July copper is down $0.0065. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31 at 21,343. July crude oil is down $.25 at $44.48. July heating oil is up $0.0052 while July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0014 and July natural gas is up $0.123.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 1/4 cents, surviving Thursday's early selling even though rain is still in the seven-day forecast for the central and eastern Midwest. Just to show how variable this year's weather has been, Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed expanding areas of abnormally dry conditions in the central Midwest at the same time that the National Weather Service flagged flooding concerns in a handful of counties between Kansas and Indiana. The Climate Prediction Center said Thursday it expects above-normal temperatures and normal precipitation across the Corn Belt in the month of July, but the way things have been changing, traders remain focused on short-term forecasts. As of Thursday, rain is expected from eastern Kansas to the Great Lakes the next few days and that should help crops endure this week's hotter temperatures. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 23.6 and 39.1 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination that has total shipments up 40% in 2016-17 from a year ago and continues to make a case for a lower ending stocks estimate from USDA. Technically, December corn remains in an uptrend, but prices are struggling to trade higher with rain in the forecast. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.39 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in 11 months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.56, a delayed reaction after the Federal Reserve took a leap of faith in the economy Wednesday and raised the federal funds rate a quarter-percent. August gold is down $20.20.

Soybeans:

November soybeans finished up a nickel with some encouragement from Thursday's crush report. According to Dow Jones, the National Oilseed Processors Association said 149.25 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, more than expected, but still down 2% from a year ago. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.749 billion pounds at the end of May, also more than expected, but July soybean oil closed up 0.65 anyway, finding support from talk of possible political help in 2017. Like corn, soybeans are struggling to trade higher with rain in the forecast and also have the added bearish concern of what USDA might say in its acreage report on June 30. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments totaled 12.5 million bushels and 18.0 mb respectively, another bullish week that now has total soybean shipments up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago. November soybeans remain in a downtrend, but thanks to active demand and commercial support in the low-$9s, prices are holding steady ahead of June 30. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.67 Wednesday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

All three July contracts of wheat started the day lower, but finished higher with July Chicago wheat leading the way after posting a 16-cent rebound from the low and a gain of 10 3/4 cents on the day. We have noted before that this has been an unusual year of weather challenges for winter wheat and so it is not a complete surprise that we now see prices firming as harvest activity starts to pick up. Early reports from south-central Kansas have been generally favorable so far, but wet fields were noted in McPherson County. As mentioned above for corn, areas of abnormal dryness and areas of flooding concern can both be seen from Kansas to Indiana. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 13.7 mb and 22.9 mb respectively, a neutral combination that has total wheat shipments up 52% from a year ago early in the new 2017-18 season. Both, July Chicago and July K.C. wheat have now resumed uptrends that first began in early May after snow fell in western Kansas. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.19 Wednesday, priced 24 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in eleven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.88, also near its highest price in eleven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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