DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 10 1/2 cents in the July contract and down 10 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 10 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 11 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, down 8 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and down 6 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.07 at 97.16. August gold is down $2.30 at $1,269.10 while July silver is down 27 cents and July copper is down $0.0345. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 72 at 21,200. July crude oil is up $0.19 at $46.02. July heating oil is down $0.0066 while July RBOB gasoline is down $0.0158 and July natural gas is down $0.019.

Corn:

December corn closed down 10 1/2 cents Monday, a sharp U-turn after Monday's wet seven-day forecast squelched last week's concerns of hotter and drier weather. There is still plenty of summer ahead, but as of Monday, moderate to heavy rains are expected to cover nearly all of the U.S. except the southwestern states during the next seven days. That is a quick contrast to the hot and windy conditions that were seen over the weekend, especially from western Texas into Iowa and parts of Illinois. As bearish as Monday's sell-off was, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders turned significantly less bearish in corn on June 6, holding 32,459 net shorts, down from 99,501 the previous week. Commercial net longs dropped from 88,985 to 19,849, but were still offering support as corn prices reached the upper end of their sideways range. While weather is wreaking havoc with corn prices, demand is still doing well for corn. USDA said 41.0 million bushels were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 46% from a year ago. After posting a mistake at 8 a.m. CDT, USDA later announced 5.1 million bushels (130,000 mt) of U.S. corn (not soybeans) were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. In spite of Monday's sell-off, December corn's trend remains up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.48 Friday, priced 40 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in 11 months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.07 and most other commodities were also lower. The Federal Reserve's next rate decision is due out Wednesday afternoon.

Soybeans:

November soybeans fell a dime, also pressured by rain in this week's forecast and the anticipation of what USDA might say in its acreage report on June 30. Monday started with some confusion after USDA mistakenly announced 4.8 million bushels (130,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17, but later corrected the message to a corn sale. USDA did say 18.7 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a bullish amount that put total inspections up 18% in 2016-17 from a year ago with 12 weeks remaining in the marketing year. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in soybeans with 66,882 net shorts as of June 6. Commercials held 111,296 net longs, still near the most in two years and representing good demand for spot soybeans in the low $9s. With USDA still expecting increased U.S. soybean supplies in 2017-18 and traders showing concern about the number of planted acres, November soybeans remain in a downtrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.76 Friday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

All three wheats closed lower Monday, but true to their recent form, July Minneapolis wheat was only down 6 cents while July Chicago wheat was down 11 3/4 cents. This week's forecast expects unwelcome heavy rain amounts on winter wheat in the eastern Midwest while the southwestern Plains stay drier. Spring wheat conditions are expected to benefit from moderate showers in the northwestern Plains and southern Canadian Prairie. After eight days in the new 2017-2018 season, USDA said wheat inspections totaled 31.6 million bushels, up 39% from a year ago. The season is still young, but already seeing better demand with a lower crop expected in 2017. Not surprising, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in Chicago wheat with 76,590 net shorts on June 6. Commercials held 76,590 net longs, continuing to provide support for Chicago wheat in the low-$4s. So far, winter wheat contracts continue to trend sideways while Minneapolis wheat remains in an uptrend. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.19 Friday, priced 27 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in eleven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.79, also at its highest price in 11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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