DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 2 cents in the July contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents in the July and up 4 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents in the July Chicago, down 2 1/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 2 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.40 at 97.30. August gold is down $8.30 at $1,271.20 while July silver is down $0.21 and July copper is up 0.0360. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 68 at 21,250. July crude oil is up $0.29 at $45.93. July heating oil is up $0.0126, July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0096, and July natural gas is up $0.012.

For the week:

July corn closed up 15 cents and December closedup 15 cents. July soybeans were up 20 1/4 cents while the November was up 22 3/4 cents. July Chicago wheat was up 16 1/4 cents, July Kansas City wheat was up 18 1/4 cent, and July Minneapolis wheat was up 37 3/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 1/4 cents after USDA had very little new to say in Friday's WASDE report. USDA's estimates of U.S. ending corn stocks stayed unchanged at 2.295 billion bushels for the current season and 2.110 billion bushels for 2017-18. USDA's estimate of Brazil's corn crop increased from 96.0 to 97.0 mmt which was expected and not as high as feared. USDA increased its estimate of world ending corn stocks for 2017-18 from 194.33 to 195.27 mmt and that is still supportive for prices as it represents a decent reduction from the current season's ending stocks estimate of 224.59 mmt. More importantly, extreme heat remains in the forecast from the southwestern Plains into the Midwest at least until early next week. In spite of increased competing supplies from South America getting closer, December corn continues to trend higher with active weather concerns. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Thursday, priced 40 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in eleven months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.40 after the Tories fell short of a clear majority in the U.K.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 4 1/2 cents, even though Friday's WASDE report revealed some mildly bearish changes. USDA increased its estimates of U.S. ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 450 million bushels in the current season and 495 million bushels in 2017-18 -- both the result of a lower crush estimate in 2016-17. USDA increased its soybean production estimate for Brazil from 111.6 to 114.0 mmt and for Argentina, from 57.0 to 57.8 mmt. Modest increases were expected, but 114.0 mmt for Brazil was more than anticipated. USDA's estimate of world ending soybean stocks was increased from 88.81 mmt to a higher-than-expected 92.22 mmt. The new number is mildly bearish, but overall, world soybean production is expected to match use in 2017-18. In spite of Brazil's record harvest, U.S. soybean shipments continue to do well and are up 19% from a year ago. Earlier Friday, USDA said 7.4 million bushels (201,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown for 2016-17. November soybeans gained 22 3/4 cents this week, thanks to heat in the forecast and soybean prices' bullish seasonal tendency for this time of year. The overall trend of prices however, remains down. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.73 Thursday, priced 65 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents Friday with some disappointment in USDA's winter wheat estimate of 1.25 billion bushels, still near last month's guess. USDA's U.S. ending wheat stocks estimate inched up, from 914 to 924 million bushels for 2017-18, but it also important to keep in mind that this is down from 1.161 billion bushels in 2016-17 and we don't really have a good production estimate for the new season yet. Not only has this year's winter wheat crop endured mosaic virus and nearly every weather challenge in the book, but spring wheat is also confronting an expanding drought this week and has seen spot Minneapolis wheat prices jump to their highest levels in nearly two years. USDA did increase its estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2017-18, from 258.29 to 261.19 mmt or 35.5% of annual use. However, USDA's estimate that world wheat demand will drop 1% in 2017-18 is suspiciously low and there is still plenty of uncertainty ahead with summer just getting started here in the Northern Hemisphere. July Chicago wheat continues to trade sideways with support from the anticipation of lower ending U.S. wheat supplies in 2017-18. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.20 Thursday, priced 29 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in eleven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.81, at its highest price in eleven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.