DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Grains Higher, Heat On the Way

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

December corn was up 3 cents, November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents, and July Chicago wheat was up 5 cents.
Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all higher early Thursday as temperatures are expected to get hotter in the western Plains on Friday and migrate eastward through the weekend. USDA's export sales numbers pale in comparison to the impact of current weather concerns.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Lower
Crude Oil: Lower

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Corn:

December corn was up 3 cents early Thursday, pushing to new highs in 2017 with hot temperatures headed to the western Plains and central Midwest Friday and through the weekend. On Saturday, triple-digit temperatures are expected to reach from western Texas up to western Iowa and will stress crops and livestock. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 13.7 and 47.8 million bushels respectively, down from the previous week, but still bullish enough to have total shipments up 44% from a year ago. After posting a new 3-month high on Wednesday, December corn remains in an uptrend with a modest reduction in U.S. ending stocks expected in 2017-18. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in eleven months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.19, keeping a firm tone even though Eurostat reported higher-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone of 1.9% in the first quarter from a year ago.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents early Thursday, also responding to expectations for hotter temperatures in the western Plains on Friday which are expected to migrate eastward across the Midwest over the weekend. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor also showed expanding drought in the northwestern Plains, but DTN's seven-day forecast does expect rain across the northernmost states, west of the Great Lakes. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 5.8 and 11.7 million bushels, a neutral-to-bearish combination as Brazil's cheaper FOB prices have gained recent advantage. With this week's new weather concerns, November soybeans continue to trade higher, against the prevailing downtrend, but in line with their seasonal tendencies. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.65 Wednesday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and near its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

All three wheats are trading higher early with July Chicago wheat up a nickel at the 7:45 a.m. CDT break. Friday will be unusually hot for the northwestern Plains with a chance for triple-digit temperatures in South Dakota. Not as surprising, the southwestern Plains will remain hot over the weekend with high temperatures reaching the 100s in many areas. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 16.9 and 3.5 million bushels, respectively -- low amounts to start the new season. USDA's official tally of wheat exports in 2016-17 came to 974 million bushels which is 61 million bushels shy of its export estimate, but keep in mind more adjustments may be coming. Both, spring wheat and winter wheat are currently under stress in the U.S. as harvest starts to pick up in winter wheat areas. Outside of North America, wheat concerns remain minimal, but the anticipation of less U.S. production is helping winter wheat prices maintain a sideways range with possible bullish potential still ahead. Minneapolis wheat, on the other hand, remains in an uptrend. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.14 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in twelve weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow ToddTwitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman