DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 cent in the July contract and up 1 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 7 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 8 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 7 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 9 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.28 at 96.99. August gold is down $13.10 at $1,280.10 while July silver is down 19 cents and July copper is up $0.0610. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 42 at 21,178. July crude oil is up $0.03 at $45.75. July heating oil is up $0.0088 while July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0011 and July natural gas is up $0.018.

Corn:

December corn was up 1 1/4 cents Thursday, salvaging a small gain with help from a seven-day forecast that expects hotter temperatures across the Midwest. Triple-digit readings in the southwestern Plains on Friday are expected to migrate eastward into the Midwest through the weekend and will be stressful to crops and livestock. Coming at a time when U.S. corn production was already expected to be modestly lower in 2017, corn prices reacted by breaking out of their sideways ranges on Wednesday, prompting noncommercial short-covering as well as commercial buying. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 13.7 and 47.8 million bushels respectively, down from the previous week, but still bullish enough to have total shipments up 44% from a year ago. Corn demand has been good in 2016-17, but Brazil's next harvest has already begun and is weeks away from offering increased competition. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to estimate Brazil's corn production at 96.5 mmt, but the actual number could go higher if recent private estimates are close to correct. With active summer weather concerns in the U.S., December corn remains in an uptrend. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and at its highest price in eleven months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.28, reluctant to trade lower ahead of next week's two-day Federal Reserve meeting.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 8 cents Thursday, also benefiting from a mix of commercial buying and noncommercial short-covering as the forecast described above captures traders' attention. Before this week's weather concerns, the outlook for soybeans was quite bearish and Friday's WASDE report is still apt to show an estimate of increased U.S. ending soybean stocks for 2017-18. Also of concern is the possibility that USDA's acreage report on June 30 may show more soybean acres than the record high 89.5 million USDA estimated in March. Commercials responded with strong buying when soybean prices hit their lowest levels in a year and, now with extreme heat in the forecast, a wrench has been thrown into soybeans' bearish outlook. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 5.8 and 11.7 million bushels, a neutral-to-bearish combination which was likely affected by slower traffic on the Mississippi River and Brazil's cheaper FOB soybean prices. November soybeans have turned higher, in line with their seasonal tendency, but the overall trend remains down. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.65 Wednesday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and near its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat

All three wheats closed higher again Thursday and were led by a 8 3/4-cent gain in July Minneapolis, the contract's highest close in nearly a year. Thursday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor showed expanding and worsening drought conditions in the Dakotas which are also spilling into southern Saskatchewan. DTN's seven-day forecast does expect rain across the southern Canadian Prairies, including Montana and North Dakota, but amounts are apt to be light. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 16.9 and 3.5 million bushels, respectively -- low amounts to start the new season. USDA's official tally of wheat exports in 2016-17 came to 974 million bushels which is 61 million bushels shy of its export estimate, but keep in mind USDA may have some adjustments coming. Friday's WASDE report will have another survey-based estimate of winter wheat which will be interesting, but their all-wheat production estimate will not include the latest spring wheat problems. With weather concerns active, July K.C. wheat has found support and is holding a sideways range as we are about to learn more from the winter wheat harvest. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.14 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in eleven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.72, also near its highest price in eleven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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