DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/4 cent in the July contract and up 1 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 3/4 cent in the July contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed unchanged in the July Chicago contract, down 3 1/4 cents in the July Kansas City and up 5 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.06 at 96.73. August gold is up $2.00 at $1,282.20 while July silver is up 4 cents and July copper is up $0.0120. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6 at 21,200. July crude oil is down $0.24 at $47.42. July heating oil is down $0.0220 while July RBOB gasoline is down $0.0371 and July natural gas is down $0.003.

Corn:

July corn closed up a quarter-cent Monday, still hiding safely within the confines of the same sideways range it has traded in for nearly three months. DTN's seven-day forecast is mostly dry for the eastern Midwest and that should help crop conditions there. The Dakotas are expecting light rain amounts, but much more is needed. On the bearish side, record corn production is expected from Brazil and Argentina this year and those supplies are just weeks away from competing with the U.S. So far however, U.S. corn export business has been good and Monday's report of weekly inspections showed 46.3 million bushels inspected, adding to a total that is now up 50% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in corn with 99,501 contracts net short as of May 30, up from 66,670 the previous week. Commercials increased net longs from 60,074 to 88,985, a good show of support for corn's value at these prices. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.36 Friday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in twelve weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.06 in quiet trading with the next Federal Reserve meeting set for next week.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 3/4 cent Monday, keeping a low profile while drier weather is expected to help crop conditions in the eastern Midwest this week. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report is likely to show soybean plantings on schedule, but traders will probably pay more attention USDA's corn crop ratings for signs of possible improvement in fields last week. This is typically the time of year when Brazil dominates export business, but so far, U.S. exports remain moderately active. USDA said Monday that 10.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 17% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Earlier, USDA reported 2.2 million bushels (60,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17 and another 2.2 million bushels for 2017-18. With U.S. soybean supplies expected to increase in 2017-18, it is not surprising that noncommercial traders remain bearish in soybeans with 63,347 net shorts as of May 30. Commercials however, increased net longs to 117,192, the most in two years and a strong vote of confidence for spot soybean prices in the low $9s. Even so, July soybeans remain in a downtrend early in June. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.55 Friday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and near its lowest prices in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat finished unchanged Monday, pressured by beneficial rains in Europe and this week's drier forecast for U.S. winter wheat areas ahead of harvest. U.S. winter wheat has faced numerous challenges this year and it will be interesting to see USDA's updated estimate of U.S. wheat production on Friday -- an estimate that should still show a significant reduction from last year. Outside of North America, there are not many problems having impact, but spring wheat prices are getting a boost from dry conditions in the Dakotas and this year's delays in Canada. Monday morning, USDA said 19.2 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, 3.2 million bushels of which were for the new crop year. Total inspections fell short of USDA's export estimate by 26 million bushels in 2016-17, but that should be no surprise to wheat prices. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in Chicago wheat with 83,735 net shorts as of May 30. Commercials increased net longs to 79,756, maintaining support for wheat prices in the low $4s. So far, July Chicago wheat is holding a sideways range, but is having difficulty getting away from the lower end. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.97 Friday, priced 32 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in12 weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.57, down from its highest price in11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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