DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Grains Higher Early, U.S. Dollar Dips

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was up 2 1/4 cents, July soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents, and July Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced that 2.6 million bushels (70,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to Spain for 2016-17. A previous sale of 4.8 million bushels (130,000 mt) to unknown for 2017-18 was also identified as going to Spain. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all starting higher, receiving a little support from Friday's lower U.S. dollar index which came after the U.S. Labor Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Lower
Gold: Higher
Crude Oil: Lower

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Corn:

July corn was up 2 1/4 cents early Friday, staying in the middle of the same sideways range that it has traded in the past twelve weeks. Friday is starting out mostly clear across the Corn Belt with showers expected this weekend from Wisconsin and Michigan eastward. Texas and the southeastern states are also in for moderate to locally heavy rains Friday and into the weekend. The rest of the Corn Belt is only expecting light amounts which will help some of the wettest areas recover from May's rains. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 16.2 and 52.5 million bushels respectively, bullish enough to keep total shipments up 45% in 2016-17 from a year ago. With the number of corn acres still uncertain and the extended forecast looking better for crop conditions, July corn continues to trade sideways, under the April high of $3.79 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.33 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in 11 weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.33 after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls were up 138,000 in May, less than expected. The unemployment rate improved from 4.4% to 4.3% in May.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced that 2.6 million bushels (70,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to Spain for 2016-17. A previous sale of 4.8 million bushels (130,000 mt) to unknown for 2017-18 was also identified as going to Spain. Before the announcement, July soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents, helped by a response of early commercial buying in soybean meal while meal prices have sunk to their lowest prices in over a year. July soybean oil on the other hand is down 0.21, slipping below the April low of 31.12 as both palm oil and canola have also traded lower this week. DTN's seven-day forecast is still wet for Michigan and Ohio, but Indiana and other Midwestern states get a break which should help soybean planting progress. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 22.4 and 12.7 million bushels respectively, putting total sales and shipments 97 million bushels above USDA's export estimate with three months remaining in the season. With plenty of soybeans being shipped out of Brazil and the U.S. forecast looking better for crops the next ten days, July soybeans remain in a downtrend, under bearish pressure. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.46 Thursday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 2 3/4 cents Friday, helped by Friday's lower dollar and early commercial buying which is helping prices hold their sideways trading range. Rain is already falling in Texas Friday and more is expected through the weekend while the wetter winter wheat areas get a chance to dry. USDA said last week's export sales showed a net cancellation of 100,000 bushels while shipments of wheat totaled 21.4 million bushels. Total wheat shipments now total 957 million bushels which is 78 million bushels short of USDA's export estimate with just six days remaining in 2016-17. Chicago and K.C. prices remain in a sideways range, supported by the anticipation of less U.S. wheat production in 2017. July Minneapolis wheat, on the other hand is up 3/4 cent and trending higher with dry conditions in the Dakotas and commercials bidding up front-month prices. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.96 Thursday, priced 33 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in 11 weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

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Todd Hultman