DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was down 2 cents, July soybeans were up 3/4 cent, and July Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cent. One day after USDA's new estimates, grains are quiet and mixed with traders' focus back on weather and the new season ahead. USDA's weekly report of export sales was bearish for corn and wheat, but neutral-to-bullish for soybeans.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

July corn was down two cents early Thursday with scattered showers across the southern Midwest. There is a chance that Missouri to Indiana will escape the heavier amounts forecast earlier this week and then the forecast turns warmer and drier after Thursday -- more favorable for planting progress. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 10.9 and 28.5 million bushels respectively, a bearish showing for the week. New-crop corn sales showed a net cancellation of 2.2 million bushels. Wednesday's new estimates from USDA showed larger corn crops in Brazil and Argentina, but also a boost of unexpected demand from Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. So far, July corn continues to trade within a sideways range with planters racing to beat crop insurance deadlines. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 486 contracts of May corn delivered early Thursday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 while metals and energies are modestly higher.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were up 3/4 cent early, still holding steady after Wednesday's lower response to USDA's new estimates. USDA did increase the export estimate for 2016-17 by 25 million bushels and, early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 14.0 and 12.7 million bushels respectively, another bullish combination for the week. Even after Wednesday's higher export estimate, total shipments are up 18% in 2016-17 from a year ago, still above USDA's estimated pace. Technically, July soybeans remain in a downtrend, but have not made a new low in four weeks. A close above $9.83, if it happened, would turn the trend higher and against bearish expectations for higher supplies in 2017. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.00 Wednesday, priced 71 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in six weeks. Among May contracts, there were 56 deliveries of soybean meal and 16 deliveries in soybean oil early Thursday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was down a half-cent early Thursday, giving back a small overnight gain after USDA released bearish export numbers. USDA said last week's export sales showed a net cancellation of 900,000 bushels along with 21.9 million bushels of shipments in 2016-17. New-crop wheat sales totaled 10.0 million bushels with the new season just weeks away. In addition, wheat prices were not helped by Wednesday's estimate from USDA that world ending stocks will total 258.3 mmt in 2017-18, reflecting even less world demand than the current season. Eastern Colorado and western Kansas have been this year's trouble spots and northwestern Kansas shows a risk of flooding Thursday. July Chicago wheat is struggling to maintain its recent uptrend, but continues to benefit from commercial support. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.90 Wednesday, priced 41 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. Among May contracts, there were 13 deliveries of Chicago wheat and 5 deliveries of K.C. wheat early Thursday.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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