DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans and wheat were all starting lower early Monday after a pleasant weekend of weather and drier weather map on Monday. Rain is expected to return later this week, however, and is expected to add to problems in the southern and eastern Midwest.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

July corn was down 3/4 cent early Monday with a relatively dry weather map, except for rain in western Iowa. Ohio and Michigan are dealing with frost and freeze warnings. DTN's seven-day forecast expects more rain this week from Colorado to Virginia, adding to already wet conditions in the southern and eastern Midwest. Brazil's second corn crop continues to do well, but Argentina's corn harvest will be interrupted by rain in northeastern Argentina this week. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials modestly bearish in corn with 76,717 net shorts as of May 2, down 6,551 from the previous week. Commercials held 73,302 net longs, near the most in a year and a sign of support for corn's economic value. July corn remains firmly entrenched in its sideways trading range, holding above support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Friday, priced 40 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 553 contracts of May corn delivered early Monday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.27, a contrarian response after France's pro-European Union candidate, Macron won Sunday's election as polls predicted.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were down 3 cents Monday, weighed down by early noncommercial selling in meal while soybean oil started modestly higher with encouragement from canola and palm oil. Planting remains a concern where fields are excessively wet in the southern and eastern Midwest, and some acres will likely be lost in 2017, but a record soybean planting is still possible, depending on how fields recover from Missouri to Indiana. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still slightly bearish in soybeans with 39,783 net shorts as of May 2. Commercials were net long 93,386 contracts, near the most in over a year and still making a good case for support near the April low of $9.41 1/4. Early Monday, Dow Jones reported China imported 8.02 million metric tons of soybeans in April, up 13% from a year ago. So far, July soybeans remain in a downtrend, but that could change with a close above $9.83. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.01 Friday, priced 72 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in five weeks. Among May contracts, there were 22 deliveries of soybean meal and 193 deliveries in soybean oil early Monday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was down 3 1/4 cents with early commercial selling after last week's roller coaster performance. This week's forecast expects more rain from Colorado to Virginia and will be no help to excessively wet fields in Missouri and southern Illinois. Meanwhile, northern spring wheat areas will be drier and warmer this week, providing better chances for fieldwork. Not surprisingly, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial net shorts in Chicago wheat dropped from a record high 130,036 last week to 84,985 as of May 2 as prices jumped to their highest level in seven weeks. As usual, commercials took advantage of the rally and lightened their record high 122,534 net longs to 78,192 as of May 2. July Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend with lots of questions about the next winter crop still waiting to be answered. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.99 Friday, priced 43 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in seven weeks. Among May contracts, there was 1 delivery of Chicago wheat and seven deliveries of K.C. wheat early Monday.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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