DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Runaway Packer Spending Spurs Cattle Futures Sharply Higher at Midday

(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle hungry packers are once again pounding on feedlot doors as early as midweek. Light to moderate business has surfaced in the South at mostly $145 (a few deals have been reported in Texas and Kansas at $146), $8-9 higher than last week. Some dressed bids in parts of the North have been marked as high as $230, $12-13 above last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. According to the midday report, the national hog base is $1.27 higher compared with the Prior Day settlement ($52.00-60.00, weighted average $57.52). Corn futures are several cents higher in late morning business, modestly supported pending weather reports. The stock market is lower near midday with the Dow off 18 points and the Nasdaq down by 30.

LIVE CATTLE:

While bullishness was on the choppy side through the first half of the session, price advances moving toward midday are becoming both more monumental and consistent. At this time, both spot June and August are locked up the 300-point limit. Incredibly, even with the board traveling at warp speed, the basis continues to strengthen. Beef cut-outs are sharply higher at midday, up 0.96 (select, $214.24) to $2.46 (choice, $231.91) with light box movement (29 loads of choice cuts, 18 loads of select cuts, 1 load of trimmings, 11 loads of coarse grinds).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder futures are pushing hard to keep up with exploding live contracts as well as rocketing feedlot sales. Most issues have once again set new contract highs.

LEAN HOGS:

Although summer lean hog contracts are scoring decent progress neat midday (i.e., up 52 to 137), the action looks like a yawners compared to the extreme craziness flowing out of the cattle complex like an erupting volcano. It looks as if bulls are ready to anticipate a seasonal rally through the first half of the summer, one that can possibly move cash sales back toward $80 or better. Carcass value is quoted higher at midday, supported by better demand for fresh cuts, picnics, and ribs. Pork cut-out: $76.65, up 0.76. CME cash lean index for 05/01: 60.29, up .41 (DTN Projected lean index for 05/02: 61.14, up 0.85).

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

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