DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 11 cents in the July contract and up 9 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 14 cents in the July contract and up 11 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 23 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 28 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 8 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.02 at 98.91. June gold is down $11.40 at $1,256.90 while July silver is down 38 cents and July copper is up $0.0545. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 21 at 20,196. June crude oil is down $0.61 at $48.72. June heating oil is down $0.0232 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0253 and June natural gas is down $0.071.

Corn:

July corn closed up 11 cents Monday, lifted higher by increased planting concerns after a weekend of snow in the western Plains and heavy rain in the Southern Plains, causing flooding problems in and around Missouri and southern Illinois. Adding to those concerns, more rain is expected to return to those same areas later this week and will also include the eastern Midwest, the southeastern U.S. and northeastern U.S. The eruption of new planting concerns as May begins is also happening after speculators had turned bearish in grains. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders holding 83,268 contracts net short in corn as of April 25, up from 36,742 the previous week. Commercials were net long 78,120 contracts, the most since late September and a good show of support for corn prices in their sideways range. USDA said earlier Monday that 43.1 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, another bullish showing that may get reflected in USDA's May 10 WASDE report. July corn continues to trade in a sideways trend with resistance at the April high of $3.79 1/2. The CME Group reported 936 deliveries in May corn early Monday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Friday, priced 42 cents below the July contract and within a sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index continues to trade near its lowest prices in over five months. NBCnews.com reported a deal has been reached among Congressional negotiators to avoid a government shutdown, buying time until Sep. 30.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 14 cents Monday, also benefitting from this spring's planting concerns after a weekend of heavy rains in the southern Midwest. Some corn acres will likely be lost in Missouri and southern Illinois this year, but soybean planting is still possible before the June 20 soybean crop insurance deadlines for the region, if weather cooperates. This year, that may be a big "if" as rain is expected to return again later this week. It is also fair to say that Monday's rally was probably enhanced by noncommercial short-covering after Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials net short 43,737 contracts of soybeans as of April 25, up from 12,673 the previous week. Commercials on the other hand, were net long 99,348 contracts, the most since June 2015 and offering prices surprisingly strong support in the mid-$9 range. USDA's weekly inspections report showed 19.2 million bushels of soybeans inspected last week, keeping up a bullish export pace in 2016-17. Technically, July soybeans remain in a downtrend, but are also holding support from the outside weekly reversal of three weeks ago. Among May contracts, 1,013 deliveries of soybeans, 104 deliveries of meal, and 788 deliveries of soybean oil were reported early Monday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.78 Friday, priced 78 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 23 3/4 cents and July K.C. wheat closed up 28 1/2 cents Monday, both riding high after adverse weekend weather caught speculators on the short side of the market. Winter wheat crops were hit by snow in western Kansas and Nebraska and by heavy rains, which flooded fields in and around Missouri and southern Illinois. Even more rain is expected to return to the area later this week. This weekend's turbulent weather caught noncommercial traders holding a record high 130,036 net shorts in Chicago wheat as of April 25, reported the CFTC on Friday. Commercials are once again being rewarded for supporting wheat prices, holding 122,534 net longs, which is also the most on record. USDA's weekly inspections report was lost in the excitement of Monday's higher prices, but turned in a slightly bullish showing of 21.1 million bushels inspected. It will be a while before anyone can get a good assessment of how much winter wheat has been lost, but be sure to follow DTN Crops/Technology Editor Pam Smith's reports from the U.S. Wheat Quality Council's Kansas wheat tour this week. As of Monday, the trends in both Chicago and K.C. wheat have turned higher. Among May contracts, there were 453 contracts of Chicago wheat, 576 K.C. wheat, and 297 Minneapolis wheat announced for delivery early Monday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.84 Friday, priced 48 cents below the July contract and up from its 2017 low. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.42, at a new five-week high.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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