DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was up 1 3/4 cents, July soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents, and July Chicago wheat was up 2 1/2 cents. Grains were leaning higher early Thursday with spring weather presenting numerous challenges. USDA's weekly report of export sales was especially bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

July corn was up 1 3/4 cents early, showing little reaction to late Wednesday's rumor that the White House was considering scrapping the NAFTA treaty -- a move frowned on by ag groups and now set aside in favor of trying to renegotiate the treaty. Thursday morning temperatures below freezing in the northwestern Plains continue to discourage planting and DTN's five-day forecast of broad rain coverage over most of the Corn Belt will also slow progress, especially from Arkansas to southern Illinois where rain amounts are expected to be the highest. While Brazil's second corn crop is growing and in good shape, U.S. exports continue to flourish. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 38.9 and 54.1 million bushels respectively, another bullish combination that has total shipments up 54% in 2016-17 from a year ago. July corn remains in a sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Thursday, priced 42 cents below the July contract and within a sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 and June crude oil is down 89 cents a barrel.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents in quiet overnight trading. Soybean prices continue to trade in an environment of heavily bearish expectations and this spring's planting challenges for corn are not helping the outlook for soybean prices. Brazil's record soybean harvest is nearing the end while harvest is picking up in Argentina with help from drier weather. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 29.7 and 28.7 million bushels respectively, a surprisingly bullish performance that has total shipments up 18% from a year ago and total sales already 49 million bushels above USDA's 2016-17 estimate with four months still left in the season. While demand remains suspiciously bullish, July soybeans remain in a downtrend with traders focused on the anticipation of increased supplies. Recent commercial buying is giving prices a chance to find support above the April low of $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.77 Thursday, priced 79 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 2 1/2 cents early along with a modest gain in K.C. wheat as traders reluctantly show some reaction to emerging weather concerns. Wednesday's rain across Arkansas and southern Missouri will return the next five days and be favorable for parts of the southwestern Plains, but will increase the risk of flooding from Arkansas into southern Illinois and likely damage wheat crops. Cold temperatures continue to be a problem for spring wheat in the northern Plains and there is also some risk of subfreezing temperatures hurting Kansas wheat on Saturday morning. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 2.3 and 22.5 million bushels, a bearish combination that offers no threat to the large U.S. wheat surplus. July Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend with changing weather factors in play and prices at risk of sporadic noncommercial short-covering. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.70 Thursday, priced 56 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest price in 2017.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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