DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 5 3/4 cents in the May contract and up 5 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 6 3/4 cents in the May contract and down 5 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 10 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and up 13 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 at 98.70. June gold is down $12.60 at $1,264.90 while May silver is down 31 cents and May copper is up $0.0325. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 258 at 21,022. June crude oil is up $0.26 at $49.49. June heating oil is up $0.0006 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0031 and June natural gas is down $0.013.

Corn:

July corn closed up 6 1/4 cents Tuesday, showing more concern about planting progress as colder temperatures in the northern Midwest are added to an already wet forecast for most of the Corn Belt. Late Monday, USDA said 17% of corn was planted, nearly reaching the five-year average pace of 18%. The expectation for colder temperatures to invade the northern Corn Belt well into May will make planting more difficult as will the heavy rain expected this week from Arkansas to Illinois and surrounding areas. While the U.S. is encountering problems, conditions remain favorable in South America with occasional showers helping Brazil's second corn crop and drier weather helping Argentina's harvest. For now, July corn prices are trapped in a sideways range, holding above support of the March low at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.24 Monday, priced 35 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 and on track for its lowest close in five months in the aftermath of Sunday's preliminary election in France.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed down 6 3/4 cents, pulling back from Monday's three-week high after USDA said 6% of soybeans were already planted, a quicker than usual start for the year. The bulk of planting has been in three southern states, but the eagerness to get soybeans in the ground so quickly is troubling for soybean prices in a year when USDA has estimated a record high planting of 89.5 million acres. After a record U.S. soybean harvest last fall, followed by Brazil's record harvest, and now, record U.S. plantings this spring, it is somewhat surprising that prices aren't significantly lower, but the credit goes to strong world demand -- a factor that is always difficult to nail down. July soybeans remain in a downtrend early in 2017 with support holding so far at $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.91 Monday, priced 70 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents Tuesday, helped by emerging concerns of adverse, weather which prompted modest noncommercial short-covering. Late Monday, USDA gave its winter wheat crop rating a slight increase and said 32% of the crop was headed. Western Kansas may have seen light damage from cold temperatures over the weekend, and this week's forecast for heavy showers from Arkansas to Illinois is likely to inflict damage. USDA also said 22% of spring wheat was planted and 5% was emerged, lower than usual for this time of year. DTN's forecast for cold and wet conditions in the Northern Plains well into May is not helpful for further progress. Bears will correctly remind us that plenty of old-crop wheat is still available and prices are in a downtrend. It is also true that prices are fundamentally cheap, and there is plenty of risk in the new season ahead. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.63 Monday, priced 39 cents below the May contract and a new low in 2017. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.14, also a new low in 2017.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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